Hi All,
So finally we had a good day in market where stocks showed some momentum but mostly lot can be attributed also to expiry. We did manage to end the expiry over 4700 after making new lows earlier in the morning. As per my last Nifty update, I mentioned about downward channel and the market is still in that channel. Now the downward support in the channel is around 4560-4580 levels (ofcourse this will be lower with time as its downward channel). Market went around 4630-4640 and then made a sharp bounce later in the day to close over 4750 levels. I did mention that if market falls below 4700 in one direction then it is time to buy as there has to be a bounce expected which was long overdue. Todays rise can bring in some short term respite but there is no way we can say that bottom is in place. I have not been giving any share tips for some days as I prefer now to give market direction and how I see market behaving rather than a specific stock as overall market direction is probably everyone is interested in and if any specific stock query is there can always be posted in Q&A section.
Ideally market should now face resistance around 4830-4870 levels , the same way it had support at levels around 4850. So this upmove can take market to those levels if there is no bad news for few days and rupee can appreciate a bit. If market shows sign of tiredness around 4850 levels then I would again be apprehensive and think market can come down to 4560-4580 levels if it makes new low and that time I will again buy with strict stoploss of 20-30 pts as breaking a channel will anyways bring market down quickly. On upside if it can go over 4850 levels and show some momentum then it can go back over 5000 levels (see my last nifty update on downward channel) and then correct. I hope we stay in channel only and do not break below it and if there has to be a break out it be on the upside.
Nilesh
Tracking, Trading and Investing in the Markets 
Dear Nilesh,
Thanks for this post… After seeing the panic in 2008 fall..I’m bit brave this time. You was there with us during 2008-09 and till mid of 2010..and Back here again at much needed time. Thanks for that…!!
In my opinion, Mahindra Satyam did well since last 3 quarter (in terms of operational performance). It also supported very well Tech Mahindra.. My feeling says some strong dirty hand behind the MS, which is holding it’s price movement. At the same time FII are increasing their share holding qtr by qtr.
Please can you share your opinion on Satyam..? Do you believe this can be good bet in IT?
Thanks.
Regards,
Hegde.
Disclaimer: Personally holding satyam in my portfolio.
Comment by Ramchandra Hegde — November 26, 2011 @ 7:17 pm
Hi Hegde,
How are you doing friend? In hyderabad or outside India. Will be good to meet in person. Lets connect off the blog.
Coming to your query, I do think with Mahindra at the helm as promoters company should do good as it is not a startup company. The credibility lost will definitely take time to gain and then lot of people are also thinking now when does Tech Mahindra and Satyam merge or what is the means of it and how is it done as that will also make a huge difference to the outlook of stock and its movement. I think in of the query for Satyam I did mention it is stock in range and one can play the range. Anyways I do think when this stock breaks out of range then anyways one can buy it for momentum and larger moves but until then why should we not play range and buy at lower range and sell at higher range… What we might lose is few bucks but atleast we keep making some money and not just see the share in a range and get bored and move out of the stock… human tendency is to stay with stock for long time but get out and then only stock moves 🙂
Fundamentally operations should become better only… Currently forex movement might have an impact and also the economy is not that great everywhere so I do not say it will be a sure shot bet but I think it has potential to go higher in long run from current levels but different factors outlined above will impact the movement.
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 28, 2011 @ 7:58 pm
Hi Nilesh ,
I got to know about this site from a friend . This post helped me gain the confidence to do intraday trade today . Played with Thermax(bought 440 sold at 451) and Tata Motors (bought at 171 sold at 176 ) .
I have very high regards and respect for your kind and selfless deed .
Thanks
veena
Comment by veena — November 25, 2011 @ 3:46 pm
Hi Veena,
Thanks for your kind words. Good to know that you think my article does help some of you if not all 🙂
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 28, 2011 @ 7:51 pm
Any fools (Dik, Tom and Harry) can write such things, better write some thing good instead of writing such foolish copying from Money control and all
Comment by Abraham — November 24, 2011 @ 11:02 pm
Hi Abraham,
You can have your own opinion about it… About copying from Moneycontrol, then sorry to disappoint you I do not copy and paste here… and neither I read into moneycontrol analyst or any other comments.
You are free to leave the blog and not read if it does not interest you but do not make unwanted comments.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 24, 2011 @ 11:40 pm