Please post all your Generic queries / discussion points / inputs on the blog for the month of November 2011 in this section as comments. Any query or comments specific to a post on the blog should be posted under that section only and not under this Q&A.
Thanks
Nilesh
Tracking, Trading and Investing in the Markets 
Hi, Nilesh, Nice to see you after a long time.What is your view on Sintex, PTC and Hanung
Comment by K.Ramanaiah — December 4, 2011 @ 6:57 pm
Hi Ramanaiah,
Hope you are doing fine…
Sintex: It is currently in downtrend and for it to break this downtrend it will have to go over 120 and then 140 levels.. Ofcourse that is almost40% higher than current levels.. So from investment / trading perspective then i would say, if stock does not break recent lows then you can buy partly but major support which I doubt sintex will break will be 70-75 levels… From current levels and 75 levels or so it can definitely bounce to 120 and in medium term 140 levels but not in a hurry.
PTC: 40-45 levels are multi year support levels and stock bounced back from those levels but as it is near multi year lows, it is weak. On the upside I doubt if it can cross 65-68 levels anytime early.
Hanung – I think if it can consolidate within 10% range of current levels for few weeks/months then it can be a good buy for investment.
Regards
nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — December 7, 2011 @ 10:56 pm
Hi Nilesh ,
Is there any stock that i can trade , provided nifty manages to touch 4950 levels
Thanks
Comment by vinoth — November 30, 2011 @ 11:01 pm
Hi Vinoth,
I would assume banking stocks would have to give a rise if nifty touches 4950 levels or so.. And with upmove in global market today, I would not be surprised for some of the bank stocks like axisbank, icicibank give easily 5-8% gains from todays closing. Also some of the metal stocks can show a bit of rebound…..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — December 1, 2011 @ 12:13 am
Hi Nilesh ,
I have bought crompton greaves@125 . what levels should i watch ?
Also is Bank Of baroda still good to get into ?
Thanks
Comment by vinoth — November 28, 2011 @ 9:36 pm
Hi Vinoth,
I guess you bought in momentum and probably a buy earlier would have been better…. Anyways I think the next level should be 134-137 levels and only if it closes over 136 then it can go to 146 and then 159… I really doubt if it can go to such high levels in this uptrend…. I expected capital goods stocks to move but then it is also in co-relation with how overall market moves…. So this is bounce expected..because of the steep fall these shares had.
On Bank of Baroda, I would consider this to be a good stock but in long term for sure but bought in incremental way and at every correction but not in one go… From current levels it definitely can go another 5-6% more up but then I doubt it can go over 780-800 levels right now… Bank nifty can go to 9200 levels, in this upmove if we have positive sentiment…. But then risk ratio is not that great for just trading…
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 28, 2011 @ 10:25 pm
Thanks Nilesh
Comment by vinoth — November 28, 2011 @ 11:06 pm
Hi Nilesh,
wat u say about today’s bounce? How much it will last?
How is bank nifty loking?
Comment by Nikhil — November 28, 2011 @ 8:16 pm
Hi Nikhil,
I expected 4850 as I mentioned in previous post… Now if market can avoid bad news then next logical target where resistances exist will be 5020-5050 and then 5150-5180… after that it will be 5200-5250 where I doubt it can cross.. but if it does and stay above 5250 then we have an uptrend beginning but we are far away from it.. on Downside 4580-4600 will be good support.. but this level goes on decreasing with passing weeks…
About bank nifty: If nifty can show uptrend and do not fall again then bank nifty can go to 9200 levels…
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 28, 2011 @ 9:04 pm
Hi Nilesh,
What is your call on Pantaloom Retail, Kavveri Tel and KPIT cummins. Is it good time to enter then what can be the entry point?
Thanks
Comment by Narayan — November 27, 2011 @ 10:04 am
Hi Narayan,
My comments below:
Pantaloon: There is momentum and excitement due to FDI news but then it is more of a trading momentum and I do not think that a deal will be materialised tomorrow itself. It is also because the stock has corrected so much that any good news could have brought a good rise. Now 205-210 should be good support and can show further momentum but on upside the levels where resistance will be is 238, 269 and 310….the stock is still in long term downtrend and unless it breaks above these ressitances and consolidate, it is in downtrend…. So only trade as per news in this stock if you are good at it.
Kavveri Telecom: It can go upto 140-145 levels but if you want to trade then keep 120-125 as stoploss… I know this stock has outperformed market …. Abover 142 levels or so it can again try to touch its high around 165-170…. but see if this can really go past 142 levels.. for trading just try to see if 120-125 holds on closing basis then 8-10% upmove can be expected.
KPIT Cummins – The stock is near its 30 day and 200 day Moving average.. I would say it can go either ways… if it can go past 170 then try to reach near term highs around 195-200 but if it breaks 155 levels then go to 140 levels and below it 130…. which should act as support but else it will show greater fall. I will not take risk of buying this stock at this high even though it is strong stock.. I rather prefer stocks which are good and have corrected a lot.
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 28, 2011 @ 9:00 pm
Hello Nilesh, how are you doing, any near term targets for Yes Bank and Venus remedies.
warm regards
Dhiraj Mark
Comment by Dhiraj mark — November 24, 2011 @ 11:04 pm
Hi Dhiraj,
Yes Bank is hardly in any trend but in a broad range and goes in one way and comes down also when market corrects. I think it can go to 290 levels and over 295 upto 310 levels… On downside 262 seems to be good support on closing basis and below it around 245-252 also are good support levels.
Venus Remedies: It is in a downtrend and near its multi year lows…. I would say on downside it can go to 150 levels if breaks 169 levels.. On upside it can give a bounce back to 195-200 levels as a bounce back.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 24, 2011 @ 11:48 pm
HI Nilesh,
heres a list of my holdings… as u can see all in deep red… what should i average out ? pls advise..
3i Infotech 18 125 70 -6500 -74.29% 2,250
Anik Industries 30.75 200 63 -6450 -51.19% 6,150
Atlas Cycles 272.15 20 365 -1857 -25.44% 5,443
Crompton Greave 114.95 25 178 -1576 -35.42% 2,874
Genus Power 12.45 825 22 -7879 -43.41% 10,271
HCL Info 50.95 50 79 -1402 -35.51% 2,548
HDFC Bank 422.15 10 470 -478 -10.18% 4,222
Jindal Photo 128.5 30 166 -1125 -22.59% 3,855
KS Oils 6.95 1200 11 -4860 -36.82% 8,340
NHPC 22.35 175 36 -2389 -37.92% 3,911
Orbit Corporati 26.4 440 60 -14784 -56.00% 11,616
Tata Power 91.1 25 98 -172 -7.04% 2,278
thanks,
Manoj
Comment by Manoj — November 24, 2011 @ 1:39 pm
Hi Manoj,
I can see how much loss you are making on your investments and can never be a good feeling. Stoplosses are therefore critical in any investment or trading. Now averaging has to be there to recover losses but also has to depend on how much timeframe are you looking for and are you looking for returns or just get out in cost price….
On averaging rule you should follow is that unless shares stops falling and consolidates and market gives a sense that market is stabilising and can go up, you should not look to average as they say never catch a falling knife.. Ofcourse on panic days, it is always good idea if you nibble but neverage completely in one go for sure.. and you should use panic days only for good stocks and not any momentum stock.
Anyways, I think you should definitely average HDFC Bank, Crompton Greaves as they should definitely recover and are good companies but using rule above.
Tata Power – Try to exit if it comes to your price as if bearish trend continues it can really come to a lot lower level.
3I Infotech, Anik, KS Oils, NHPC, Orbit Corporation are not good stocks in current market due to various reasons and I do not think you can expect your cost levels any time soon….. So you have to either trade in them and bring your cost down but see if you can take loss in some of these stocks on upturn and invest the amount into other stocks where chances of returns are better.
Jindalphoto is a share which comes to 80 levels and then in few years also go up… its a trader stock with a very low float (i think) so is a bad stock to predict.. but anyways do not average now but look around 60-80 levels.
Atlas Cycle is also a stock which when in momentum and shows good trend, can be looked to buy but until then do not…
HCL Info and Genus power are weak now… and I will not say to average them.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 24, 2011 @ 8:20 pm
Thanks for your response…
rgds
Manoj
Comment by Manoj — November 25, 2011 @ 10:46 am
Hi Nilesh ,
Can you please suggest 3 stocks in descending order of your preference , which i can look for accumulation over a period of time( 6mnths – 1 yr) .
Thanks
Comment by vinoth — November 23, 2011 @ 9:43 am
Hi Vinoth,
Very difficult to just say what will be the top pick but I will mention few stocks from different sectors which I think can give good returns in long term, if accumulated between current and lower levels.
Bhel, LT, Crompton Greaves (Capital Goods)… Keep an eye on Bhel and Crompton greaves as they are really suffering and would be a good buy in long term as and when the industry starts performing, will be good gains in offing
Bankbaroda, SBI in banking space and other banks also … I like banks a lot in long run as the scope is huge.
Tatasteel and Hindalco (metals)
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 23, 2011 @ 10:53 pm
Thanks Nilesh .
Comment by vinoth — November 24, 2011 @ 10:06 am
Hi ilesh,
pls advise me on the following to hold or sell it
1. JP associat
2. Sintex
3.Tatacoffee
regards,
Joseph
Comment by joseph chako — November 22, 2011 @ 5:49 pm
Hi Joseph,
It depends on whether you are in money and plan to hold it for long term, medium term or short… Or is it for trading purpose… And if you are loss then could be different strategy…
But anyways,
Jp Associate: If you ask me will you get this at lower price in next few months, answer is Yes but if you ask if you ask whether it will be higher price in long term then also Yes…. On lower side.. the recent bottom it made should be considered as a support and breaking it may take to all time lows.
Sintex: Again same sort of answer.. if consider it for a year, you hold it.. but as market is negative sentiment ofcourse this can go lower but good stock to buy at lower/panic levels in stock.
Tata Coffee: This had a great run so I would rather be happy to book profits if you are in..but if you want to take the risk then probably keep 750 as stoploss (this stock make wild moves even breaking stoploss and going up again)…. and on higher side see around 900-930 you exit atleast once.
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 22, 2011 @ 8:24 pm
Thanks Nilesh for RIL, gold and silver.
Comment by Nikhil — November 20, 2011 @ 9:11 pm
Hi Nilesh ,
I am currently out of the market , Is there any fundamentally good share which is in momentum and can give good returns in next 1 month , provided nifty doesn’t drop below 4850 ?
Thanks
Comment by vinoth — November 20, 2011 @ 8:16 pm
You can ignore this question as nifty has closed below 4850 .
Comment by vinoth — November 21, 2011 @ 3:31 pm
Hi Nilesh,
What should be the best price at which I can buy and exit
=>RIL
=>TVS Motors
=>Tata Global
Comment by Rashid — November 20, 2011 @ 10:59 am
Hi Rashid,
RIL -> Reliance is making higher high and higher lows from the low it made in august/september but it has still not been able to break above 900 levels and hence still not in an uptrend. If you have to take very short call and have the risk appetite, can try to buy around 800 levels with stoploss of 780 (close below it) and look for a return of 8-10% but only once it goes above 900 and closes it can make further upmove.. Else it can easily go to 700 levels below 775-780 (if it sustains few days below it)… Breaking 680-700 will not be easy and as a long term investor or even short you should definitely average if it goes to those levels also….
TVS Motors -> I think you can buy it around 62-63 levels with stoploss of 61 for a target of 72-73 in next 4-6 weeks.
Tata Global -> It is not very clear trend.. and is on a range but making new lows.. I will suggest not to enter in it right now but wait and if it comes to 68-70 levels then definitely go for investing in this… but as of now unless it stops making new low, wait for entry into it.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 20, 2011 @ 2:32 pm
Pls post your comments o the following
1. petronet lng
2. satyam computers
3. King fisher Airlines
Comment by joseph chako — November 19, 2011 @ 3:07 pm
Hi Joseph,
Petronet -> Made a big upmove earlier in down market but seems to be consolidating now.. on a long term trend perspective, I would rather like to wait until 130-135 levels for investment.. in short term it might give moves for traders and not come in one direction but I think it should come to 130-135 levels once 150 is broken.
Satyam Computers -> It is no mans land and in between range of 58 to 93…. I think if you think long term, sticking with this company will make sense .. while if you are looking for very short term then play the range I mentioned.
King Fisher -> This will be news drive for now.. so I think decision has to be taken on what strategic investor comes in and on how quickly operations stabilise etc.. It will be too much speculation around this share to judge movement accurately. Play the news…
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 20, 2011 @ 2:39 pm
Hi Nilesh,
what is your view about Reliance Industries and Gold and silver.
Comment by Nikhil — November 18, 2011 @ 11:24 pm
Hi,
RIL -> Reliance is making higher high and higher lows from the low it made in august/september but it has still not been able to break above 900 levels and hence still not in an uptrend. If you have to take very short call and have the risk appetite, can try to buy around 800 levels with stoploss of 780 (close below it) and look for a return of 8-10% but only once it goes above 900 and closes it can make further upmove.. Else it can easily go to 700 levels below 775-780 (if it sustains few days below it)… Breaking 680-700 will not be easy and as a long term investor or even short you should definitely average if it goes to those levels also….
About Gold and Silver, I guess everyone says long term there is value.. but I assume once global economy and its problems stabilise the gold should then not run up so heavily and make some good correction.. For Silver I thought it should have had come down to 35000-40000 levels but it returned from 48000 levels itself so lets see if it corrects, I think it should come down as it has run up a lot and there should be correction coming in….. But both of them are investments in SIP format rather than buying and forgetting… look for corrections to invest in small amounts..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 20, 2011 @ 2:42 pm
sir, what is your opinion reg patni computers? Is it correct to sell now itself or wait for delisting? what might be the price at the time of delisting?
Comment by sitaraman — November 18, 2011 @ 3:27 pm
Hi Sitaram,
Patni has been the momentum stock for past few days due to delisting news as per board meeting on 16th.. The stock has made a big upmove and if you look for past few months, it has come out of a low of 250 to 450, around 80% gain in 2-3 months which is huge. So my point will be where did you buy, if you are getting gains and bought around lows in September/august, then it is sensible to sell out atleast some portion of holding and make your other outstanding shares free. Now coming to what can be target. Well 450 seems to be resistance and stock if sustains over 450 can go to 480-500 levels.. Fundamentally stock is not undervalued and is giving good returns.. We have seen how stocks have spiralled on upside due to delisting or promoters had to held back due to higher valuation… I do not think in case of Patni if stock will get very rich delisting value in such market circumstances unless euphoria comes..else if FIIs chose to get out of stock in 500 range (+/- 5-10%) then that would be value because retail probably holds only 10-12%of the stock and 81% is with promoters.. so what FII decides and get persuaded can be the right price….
Regards
nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 18, 2011 @ 7:20 pm
sir can i have your views on bajajholding
Comment by sorabh — November 18, 2011 @ 12:19 pm
Hi Sorabh,
Bajaj holding is proxy to how its investment/holding companies i.e Bajaj Auto, Finserv, Bajaj Auto Holdoings or Maharashtra scooters perform. Now the share price has done nothing much in last 1 year except being in a range of 10%. The share gave a good run from 2009 till end of last year due to high performance in holding companies… So the investment in Bajaj Holding has to be on what you think about its holdings/investments… So in short run, I see it in range only with 680 on downside and 820 on higher side.. any break above or below will give any quick run of 8-10%.. but until then you can play the range.
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 18, 2011 @ 1:37 pm
Hello Nilesh,
Welcome back… What is your call on following stocks? List is quet big, pls comment on good ones and which one quick exit..
ACROPETAL
ALOKTEXT
ASAL
DAAWAT
GENUSPOWER
KAVVERITEL
KPIT
KRBL
MADRASFERT
PETRONET
PIPAVAVDOC
SINTEX
SPIC
SONATA
Thanks
Comment by Narayan — November 18, 2011 @ 12:27 am
Hi Narayan,
I will appreciate queries on stocks restricted to three stocks at a time and only once I answer that post another query. It takes lot of time and cannot respond to so many stocks in just one go. Hope you understand can repost 3 stocks which you want an answer on priority.
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 18, 2011 @ 9:44 am
Well..
Sorry for the big list.. Pls look at these now..Sonata, Pipvav & SPIC
Thanks
Comment by Narayan — November 18, 2011 @ 2:43 pm
Hi Narayan,
Sonata and SPIC are not the kind of companies which I would ever like to trade and invest.. and advise the same to you…
For Pipapav, due to news it has been down but probably this stock can be looked out for investment on corrections in small quantities.. unless it stabilises and gives clear uptrend.. It is trading at 52 week low which is never good for any stock from trading perspective so I suggest look for investment opportunities in this stock on down days by buying in small quantities.
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 20, 2011 @ 2:50 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Nice to hear that you are back on blog.
What are ur take on:-
Crompton
HMT
GVK Power
Suzlon
Mahindra Satyam
Rain Commodities.
Comment by Rashid — November 17, 2011 @ 9:06 pm
Hi Rashid,
Thanks a lot.
I am not sure with what outlook you bought these stocks but here is my take.
Crompton: Been an underperformer for some time and due to valid reasons. now it might take another 2 qtrs before company starts showing consistent results… but in very short term stock has given a downward breakout and can go easily to 100 levels. If it goes back 165-170 levels then it can start to go towards 200 levels otherwise it might be stuck in range of 100-130 levels for some time.. Once it goes over 135 levels then probably range can be 135-160..
Mahindra Satyam will be a long story and if you have at right price and in profit then stick with it, as the promoters Mahindra would definitely do well with this company and probably whenever merger happens with Tech Mahindra that will be another trigger point on how it is done and can impact stock either ways..
HMT, GVKPower, Suzlon and Rain Commodities will not be considered by me as investments as of now and if you are not in losses or very loss then use any upmove to exit. You do not want to be in weak stocks in such markets… And also these stocks have never been showing strength in these many years… These are the stocks which will always fall first and midcaps always bear the maximum brunt.. Its better to buy into bluechips or very good midcaps and not companies like this in markets.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — November 17, 2011 @ 9:37 pm