Please post all your Generic queries / discussion points / inputs on the blog for the month of June 2010, in this section as comments. Any query or comments specific to a post on the blog should be posted under that section only and not under this Q&A.
Thanks
Nilesh
Tracking, Trading and Investing in the Markets 
hi nilesh,
pls suggest in options put/call i want to buy 5300put july month…
thankyou
rajeev verma
Comment by rajeev verma — June 30, 2010 @ 9:48 pm
Hi Rajeev,
I do not know how much you do trading in options but if you are keeping it till expiry then it is difficult to tell whether you would make much money or not. The conditions currently seem to show as if global markets would fall down but if the downfall arrests in 8-10% downfall then our market might come to 5000-5100 levels but then whether they bounce back again in July or august, difficult for me to say… If you can trade in puts/calls then do it as its volatile market and you can play either side but if you want to hold put position then it might be difficult.. On upside, Nifty should not go past 5450-5480 and then correct but there are lot of factors to watch out for..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — July 1, 2010 @ 11:59 pm
Hi Nilesh,
I have 100 shares of Skumars Nationwise @ Rs.78.
Today it closed @ Rs.73.25
What shall I do, hold or exit.
Rgds
Rahul
Comment by Rahul — June 29, 2010 @ 3:35 pm
Hi Rahul,
I guess you bought it in momentum and at a price which has been difficult for share to cross and close above it. Only once it crosses above 78-80 and sustain that it can show next move else it has been in range of 62 on downside and 78 on upside. Now share has been in this range so it is right now in middle somewhere so if you exit, it could be a case where it can bounce back and reach your price later but then it all depends on your risk management and what you think the timeline you want to hold… For me the stock around 58-62 levels seem to be a good buy with 55 as stoploss as it can move up again and go past 78 but for now it is in a range only, so you can hold but exit if you cannot see it go to those levels mentioned.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 29, 2010 @ 9:14 pm
Hi Nilesh,
What is your view on Orbit Corp, geodesic,gmdc, FSL & jai corp at CMP…
can i buy these for short term?
thanks
Manoj
Comment by Manoj — June 29, 2010 @ 3:33 pm
Hi Manoj,
Orbit Corp -> Seems to be headed higher and probably outperform market. It can go to 155-160 levels on higher side but on downside it has major support around 114 levels. On trading basis it can come to 130-132 levels and then probably go near the higher side else come down to 114 levels but looks like a strong share right now.
Geodesic -> It is again at its 52 week lows so if you buy it then keep a strict stoploss of 88 on closing basis… On upside being weak, it cant go much up unless it sustains above 88 and consolidate and then make a move.
GMDC -> This can go up towards 135 which it went today and if crosses and sustains then 143 and 151. On downside 115 but seems to be strong and should not see much downside now.
FSL -> I dont think it can go past 30 levels and can come down again from there… see when it corrects whether it goes below 24 or not as if so then it is weak else if it can sustain above 24 and take out 30 can be some short term momentum. But anyways, I would be away from this stock as there are lot better midcaps/small caps than this.
Jai Corp -> The share makes a big move and then slowly comes down to the level from where it went up so it is a risky share unless you buy at lower levels… If the share can now sustain 240 levels and go past 270 then probably go to 300. But risky I think.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 29, 2010 @ 10:00 pm
Can i buy lancoin. is it good to enter in CMP as trading buy? What could be the target?
Comment by Rajan — June 26, 2010 @ 10:06 pm
Hi Rajan,
The stocks looks good but you should keep a stoploss of 55 in it if you plan to enter as below it can go to 45 levels also.. On higher side, above 62 it can go to 65 and once sustained at these levels, would show its highs made earlier around 75-78 levels..I cannot say if it can reach those levels in very quick time or not but seems to go there in short to medium term. ON trading levels, above 62-65 and then 68 seems to be the targets.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 28, 2010 @ 4:12 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Greetings!
I bought OIL at the IPO offering(1150).What would be the right time to dispose it.It’s trading at 1350 now.
Comment by Neeren — June 25, 2010 @ 8:00 pm
Hi Neeren,
I would have said 1550-1600 levels in short term and it seems it went there today and I hope you exited it if you were looking for short term gain. But if you are looking for long term then, you can hold it but I think once the euphoria subside for Oil sector, and we see how government does in next few qtrs when crude goes higher so to know how bad underrecoveries are… But I think any stock giving 25-30% returns in few days should be booked out, if not fully then partially….
nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 28, 2010 @ 4:15 pm
Hi Nilesh, I have bough shares of ceat @ 144, gspl @98,Patel eng @421, india glycols @124 and Varun shipping company @ 55.43. Please advise.
Thanks
Rajeev Kumar
Comment by Rajeev Kumar — June 24, 2010 @ 8:41 pm
Hi Rajeev,
Ceat -> It is now not doing much and been in a broad range so I would suggest you exit it out when it comes your level, as I do not know how long you have been holding and there is no point being stuck with this stock, as I see it would be in range only from 135-170 levels, so either you keep stoploss and keep holding.
GSPL -> Hold it as it can go to 110-115 levels in short termonce it goes over 102 levels and sustains over it.
Patel Eng -> I have put this as a recommendation for long term and say you should hold it as in 12-18 months you can get good returns on this stock. See my post on it.
India Glycols -> Well again this is in range of 105-160 and now if it does not take out 160, it can again correct and come down so either you hold it for now and keep 105 as stoploss or try to book profit around 150-160 levels and keep some portion of the shares you have.
Varun Shipping -> It is a weak stock at its 52 week lows so you should keep 40 as stoploss and exit if goes below it on closing basis. If it can bounce from here then can go to 48 levels where again it will face resistance and correct .. Only any sustainenance above 48 can take it to 53-55 levels and I think you should exit there as no point in being such a weak stock.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 28, 2010 @ 4:46 pm
hi nilesh,
can you pls advse me on rohit ferro tech..i am willing to hold the stock for 1 year if it is good
thank u, umesh
Comment by Umesh — June 24, 2010 @ 11:16 am
Hi Umesh,
The stock has been a laggard and if market rides like it did in 2007 period then this stock can go up a lot but I do not expect it to show levels as it did earlier.. so if you have reasonable expectations of return of 15-20% then pretty sure it would show that atleast but you need to keep an eye on results every qtr and evaluate the status. For now 62 on higher side would be resistance but once it can take it out then you can see good move in this stock and on downside, 40 seems to be the level which it should hold.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 28, 2010 @ 4:23 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Please tell me your viewes on Indraprastha Medical also. It seems Health care (Hospitals and medical equipment manufacturers) companys should perform good in medium & long term. This one has not run up yet ! Rgds,
Anil
Comment by Anil — June 23, 2010 @ 10:46 pm
Hi Anil,
Regarding the company, the results have been steady for past few qtrs and there has neither been any growth or de-growth.. You cannot say that stock has not run up. It is almost at 47 levels and did go to 54 levels just below its all time high levels… The stock showed a low of 20 something and almost doubled from there so there has been good returns. But anyways on current levels it should be OK to hold the stock.. On lower side 40 levels should be good support and on higher side it shoudl again show 54 levels and on crossing it can probably go to 65-70 levels, so it has potential to go there from current levels in medium to long term.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 23, 2010 @ 11:59 pm
Thanx Nilesh. I did not expect a quick reply as you are travelling. Thanx once again for your valuable views. Rgds,
Anil
Comment by Anil — June 24, 2010 @ 8:33 am
Hi Nilesh,
I hope you are doing well. Just wanted to share the below news:
http://www.siliconindia.com/shownews/Banned_broker_Ketan_Parekh_still_active_in_stock_markets-nid-69038.html?utm_campaign=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_source=Subscriber
Best Regards,
Ravi
Comment by Ravi — June 23, 2010 @ 10:31 pm
hi nilesh
Need your comments on subros & thomas cook for short term gain…
regards
rajeev verma
Comment by rajeev verma — June 23, 2010 @ 10:26 pm
Hi Rajeev,
Both the shares are types which would move in its own course… Subros was a better bet around 40 levels.. Right now it is in middle of the range of 38-40 on lower side and 52 on higher side.. I do not think it would cross 52-53 levels and if it does there could be some more movement but broad range is 38-40 on lower side and 52-53 on higher side…
Similarly Thomas cook range is 72-73 on higher side and 52-53 on lower side and it is in middle around 62 levels… It can possibly attempt 65 levels in short term …
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 24, 2010 @ 12:17 am
Can i buy 3iinfotech at CMP,Please Advice, and also i am also looking at peninland, pls your thoughts on it, thanks
regards
Comment by Rajan — June 23, 2010 @ 10:17 pm
Hi Rajan,
Yes you can look to buy 3i infotech around CMP with stoploss of 61 on closing basis from a perspective of medium to long term. The risk is low in terms of stoploss just being 61. About peninland, above 73 it can make an attempt to 80 levels but it is risky in terms of being in sector which has lot of volatility and falls first in downturn.. The risk reward is better in 3i so go for it.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 24, 2010 @ 12:20 am
Hi Nilesh,
Do you think it is worth buying KSB Pumps, Poly Medicure & Span Diagnostic at CMP considering current fundamentals and future prospects though these have run up quite fast recently ? Rgds, Anil
Comment by Anil — June 23, 2010 @ 10:00 pm
Hi Anil,
I do not want to get into a stock which is running away like Span or also Poly medicure.. There is potential but then lot is being priced in.. And in momentum stocks can go lot higher as you do not price them in momentum… but the risk reward is not good that I ask you to buy into these stocks now but on meaningful corrections I guess you can look at it based on how market conditions are then.. KSB pumps can be looked at around 450 levels for medium to long term.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 24, 2010 @ 12:41 am
i have purchased 1000 shares of anikinds @ Rs.58
brandhouse @ 42
deltacorp @ 35
ismtltd @48
Can you please advice short term and long term future for this.
regards
Rajan munjal
Comment by Rajan — June 21, 2010 @ 10:14 pm
Hi Rajan,
Brandhouse -> It has been trading in a very tight range for few weeks now and I would suggest you keep 38.5 as stoploss on this stock and hold it as there is no point selling now… Above 45 can go to 50 levels, so interesting thing to see is where the share shows movement after this narrow consolidation range.
Deltacorp -> With all textile stocks moving for few days it might show some movement, but I suggest you exit this stock as there are lot better opportunitied to enter than this stock.
ISMT -> Again here it can go to 50 levels and face resistance and on crossing 51 or so it can go higher and give 8-10% move from there but it can correct from here and I would be not investing in this stock, from trading perspective it could be Ok if you enter and exit at right levels.
Anikinds -> Keep 52 as stoploss and keep holding it as it can go higher and show 70 levels and above it further high levels.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 23, 2010 @ 6:59 pm
Hi Nilesh,
What is your view on Tanla Solutions @ 35.85 (CMP)? The share has fallen down a lot from 150 levels. I would like to know your views on fundamentals as well as from trading point of view.
Thanks.
Comment by Ankur — June 18, 2010 @ 11:47 pm
Hi Ankur,
Forget this stock and dont look at it unless you see any fundamental reason .. At this moment company does not show any profits or revenues that it should go higher…. So my advise, for now forget this stock…
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 19, 2010 @ 2:51 pm
Thanks Nilesh.
May I know your view on Sunflag Iron and KRBL from medium term point of view? My Consultant has advised me that both are fundamentally good stocks to invest in. Please advise.
Comment by Ankur — June 19, 2010 @ 7:03 pm
Hi Ankur,
Yes both could be nice stocks from medium term but key is what price you buy them and what is time frame when you say medium term. KRBL is a good stock and has always showed some downmovements and its only in last rally it went so high else it always used to go up and come down … Sunflag iron being in metal stock could be cyclical and might show good movement but it can come down also…. These are commodity business stocks which cant be predicted always in one direction or has clear trend. On corrections you can probably look at both stocks. Sunflag iron below 27 can correct 10-15% from those levels.. While KRBL can come down on breaking 21 levels the same percentage.. so for now you can probably keep on watchlist and if buy keep stoploss as mentioned.. Also in case of news , probably stocks can jump quickly but else should consolidate and be in range for now.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 20, 2010 @ 8:04 pm
hi nilesh,
i want to take freesh entry in andrew yule its near 52week low whats your opinion..
regards
rajeev verma
Comment by rajeev verma — June 18, 2010 @ 10:50 pm
Hi Rajeev,
If I am not wrong you have asked about Andrew Yule earlier also… Why would you want to buy a stock making 52 weeks lows when market is going near 52 week highs? Please do not see just the price correction part, if market does not like this stock and thats why it is trading so low and when movement happens it has always been speculative because it always come down.. Unless you want to buy with the risk part that some day speculators/operators would let it go up then you can buy any such stock but for me this stock is No… If you are good into trading then the day stock start showing upward momentum then you can probably trade into but no for an investment point of view..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 19, 2010 @ 2:58 pm
thanks a lot………..
Comment by rajeev verma — June 19, 2010 @ 7:34 pm
Hi Nilesh,
What is your opinion on Biocon? Although it is a slow player, I believe biotech is the future of medicines. What is your take?
I am planning to buy this scrip for a tenure of 2+ years.
Comment by Vishal — June 17, 2010 @ 9:46 pm
Hi Vishal,
I guess it might go up with future prospects. The few things which you should keep monitoring is the results every qtr and how the pipeline looks for future revenue in terms of clinical trials, launches scheduled and other related things which keep on showing that there is potential.. The issue come up in case of bad news regarding approvals and if some failures in any of the launches, clinical trials.. The business is of high gestation period and so any delays just does not help and you have to be patient…and have realistic expectations.. As such the stocks had done well and now near higher end levels.. not sure if yo enter now what is in it for you in terms of your risk is more.. But in very short term it looks to go another 10% or so… In long term it should be good and you can keep it in radar and buy some now and buy few more on corrections.. I would not advocate buying all in one go for this stock. Bottomline – Has potential but how it translates into execution should be monitored by you for every qtr and take decision on whether moving out or not, Ofcourse one bad qtr does not mean anything, its just the direction on how company is moving is important..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 17, 2010 @ 11:57 pm
Xcellent analysis!!!
Comment by Manoj — June 18, 2010 @ 12:29 pm
Hi Nilesh,
You must have gone through the proposed changes in direct tax code
for personal and corporates.
How do you take it!Please opine your views and subsequent follow on take upon the market dueto abolishment of long term capital gain benefits.
Comment by ami — June 17, 2010 @ 8:42 pm
Hi Ami,
Let all be finalised, It is just first draft and would go through further revision. This is all sentimental and market would not behave any way dramatically because of this atleast for now.. Let all the rules be clear and then we would get a clear picture.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 17, 2010 @ 10:26 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Thank you very much for sharing your views, I purchased Aban Offshore @ 850 levels now i saw some uptrend in this share..
is it right time to average this stock or better to exit at right time.
Comment by Khaja — June 17, 2010 @ 6:43 pm
Hi Khaja,
Not sure what is your idea for averaging because the way stock fell, it has to be some good results and improving situation before it can resume its journey but its a high beta stock so the bounce back could be good.. As I mentioned yesterday to another query, it can go to 820 levels and see if it can cross it then can go to 970-1000 levels also.. but that is some time in future.. I would not be surprised if it falls again and go to retest lower levels which it made and then bounce back… So for now do not average and if its rising then there is no harm as your price can come… but to average, wait before all the dust is settled and it is sure the stock do not have any fundamental issues.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 17, 2010 @ 8:19 pm
Hi Nilesh,
What is your take on entering sasken commn and spanco for short term..Both haven’t participated in this pull back?
Also please advice on GAEL( for 6 months ) strange movements but seems undevalued for me…
Thanks in advance.. 🙂
Comment by Anand — June 17, 2010 @ 4:17 pm
Hi Anand,
Sasken -> Yes, it has not participated and just been consolidating in a range. I see it in a range of 165 on lower side for now if it breaks 179-180 but if not then if on upside can take out 190 levels then it can again starts its upmove and go to 220-230 levels. Right now it is not showing any strength so just see if it can consolidate here and when starts to move then you should get into it. Also the qtr results might be trigger for the breakout or breakdown.
SPANCO -> I do not think you can say it has not participated because it has moved so much earlier to the fall so right now just consolidating.. Again here if 105 is broken then I see it in 90-100 range and looks good to buy as I think it can make another attempt on higher and side take out current highs made as it has been making higher highs and lows and shown a trend on upside but once it starts making lower highs and lower lows then you can exit but for now either buy or see if 105 is broken then buy in 90-100 range.
GAEL -> Not sure if you want to get into this stock with strange movement with outlook of 6months or buy into something else .. In any case if it can go above 26 and stay there then you can expect 35 levels on it… or ele from 26 it can come down again and go to 18-20 levels and again do a movement up..But yes, at these levels probably if it goes down it would come back again at this price so you might take the risk but I am not sure …
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 17, 2010 @ 8:54 pm
Hi Nilesh,
I own 100 shares of REI Agro @ Rs.49 for a year. After the recent right issue, the price has gone down to Rs. 27-28.
I did not apply for the right issue. I did nothing.
So have I suffered a loss? If so, shall I sell this scrip.
Or I would get bonus shares?
Please advise.
Thanks,
Vishal
Comment by Vishal — June 17, 2010 @ 11:25 am
Hi Vishal,
Yes you lose out and as you did not apply you do not have additional shares at lower price so that your average would have been lower.. You do not get any bonus here…..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 17, 2010 @ 10:01 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Thanks for clearing my doubt. I learnt that you need to understand these things upfront. I’ll be careful in future.
And my sincere apologies for multiple entry of same questions on this blog.
Please ignore them.
Thanks again
Comment by Vishal — June 17, 2010 @ 10:16 pm
Vishal,
Rights forms have not yet been received by share holders. It recently became ex-rights. When forms are received from the Company, you may apply for the same. Rgds, Anil
Comment by Anil — June 18, 2010 @ 12:29 am
HI NILESH,
I BGHT WIPRO @ 710 level..last day it went down 40% and trading at 410 levels now..Dont know what happened with the share..Are they doing any bonus allotment..Please advice me on this share..
Comment by chindhu — June 17, 2010 @ 1:09 am
Hi Chindu,
You asked me this earlier and I replied to you that Wipro has announced bonus and so price corrected. bonus shares should come in account in some time. I guess you have not read my earlier reply to your query.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 17, 2010 @ 7:51 pm
Dear Nilesh
Market continuously has given upward movement but u r still holding ur last position , however we trust and respect your views.
Pl. suggest me on Godawari power and
Esaun Relay at current prices for short to medium term
Comment by AMI — June 16, 2010 @ 8:57 pm
Hi Ami,
I agree market is going upward and the issue is not that.. What I do not want to do now at this moment is to buy in when I am not sure what happens around 5300 or 5400 levels.. Market is at levels from where it has retraced lot of times and if any day bad news come in, it takes little time to fall but what I always have been believing is that I see market taking out new highs, which I have mentioned in lot of Nifty updates. But I did not like the way it has moved so quickly without consolidating.. For past two days it is in narrow range and not able to go up, Also it seems to be overbought. Individually stocks can go up even in this market but then the way some of laggards have moved and even not so good fundamentally stocks, you do not like it… So lets see how market goes after expiry because now with expiry coming there could be volatility because of it but in July with result season and monsoon predicted to be good, we might be better placed to go higher..
Regarding Godawari Power -> It has taken support and bounced but if you want to enter then support/stoploss would be around 190 levels and the target would be probably 235 and then 260… It made recent highs of 320 around and corrected all the way to 200 so shows how volatile its movement could be… So if you buy try to book around 235-260 if it goes there else keep a stoploss of 190.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 16, 2010 @ 10:03 pm
Hi Nileesh,
I bought wipro at 700 levels..But today it came dwn drastically n gne to 410 levels…Should i hold it or sell…And what happened with wipro that made it crash to such low levels in a single day…
Comment by chindhu — June 15, 2010 @ 11:57 pm
Hi Chindhu,
Wipro had a bonus in 2:3 ratio so the price got adjusted for the same.. so do not worry this is not a crash.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 16, 2010 @ 1:14 am
i have purchased 1000 shares of 3i infotech @ Rs.62
Can you please advice short term and long term future for this.
regards
rajeev verma
Comment by rajeev verma — June 15, 2010 @ 9:59 pm
Hi Rajeev,
I think you bought it at right price so for now just sit tight and hold it… You can easily expect 30% or more returns from here in medium to long term.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 15, 2010 @ 10:01 pm
Would like to know your view on raincom @ 214 and pittilam @ 39
Comment by Raj — June 15, 2010 @ 4:44 pm
Hi Raj,
Rain Commodities has fallen a lot and has taken for now support at 130 levels but then your buy price is too far and I do not see it coming in a hurry. It is a weak stock for now.. There could be some movement due to being oversold but then I do not expect it to be positive unless good results come out in next 2 qtrs…. Next time remember to keep a stoploss as you have bought at 214 and you let it go till 130 levels.
Pittilam -> See the way this stocks moves, there are big moves on either side and there is no real consolidation in this stock. So you can probably hold it with your cost price as stoploss and try to exit around 48-50 levels if it goes there.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 15, 2010 @ 9:21 pm
I have bought ismtltd @ 48
brandhouse @ 41
vipul @ 21
ivp @ 47
Should I hold or switch to some other stocks. plz. advice
Comment by Raj — June 15, 2010 @ 4:41 pm
Hi Raj,
ISMT -> it has corrected with other metal stocks and on bounce can go to 50-51 and above it to 54 levels but as it is near your buy price I would say try to book profit on further bounce as there are better companies than this.
Brandhouse -> It does nothing so you can stay in it with 38 as stoploss and on any momentum when this stocks make big move try to book profit.
Vipul -> Exit the stock, not sure why you want to be in such stock…and if you have to keep 19.5 as stoploss.
IVP -> Probably you can keep 42 as stoploss as the stock moved from 40 to almost 50 levels and so if it can take out 50 then can go further up to 55 levels also….
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 15, 2010 @ 9:06 pm
Hi Nilesh,
I have purchased 200 shares of Navneet Publication @ Rs.48.95.
Can you please advice short term and long term future for this.
Also provide period.
Comment by Rahul — June 15, 2010 @ 4:37 pm
Hi Rahul,
In short term it can be in range of 44-55.. generally publication stocks have been in limelight and doing well and this qtr there results should be good and there would be some strength about this sector for June qtr. Now for long term the sector might be doing well but I am not sure what could be target here.. It has made highs of 65 as all time high which could be an obvious target and above it , momentum can take it anywhere but I would first try to see what happens with 44-55 range as you can keep 44 as stoploss and exit if stock goes below and you want a lower stoploss then keep 38 as stoploss as these are two good support areas.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 15, 2010 @ 8:50 pm
Hi Nilesh,
I read your recommendations regularly and frankly speaking I am impressed with your predictions. I am a NRI and I have built a portfolio of 30 lacs over a period of 18 months. It is giving me a gain of 65%. I have 110 companies in that (90% from BSE 200). I want to keep this for at least until July 2013. What do you suggest? Should I stay invested or book profits.
Cheers
Sunil
Comment by Sunil Mamgain — June 15, 2010 @ 7:49 am
Hi Sunil,
First of all let me congratulate you for building such a good portfolio and making huge returns. You invested a lot when market was down and definitely you should have made these returns. About whether you should book out or stay invested is not an easy question to answer without knowing much and I do not have capacity to do this review on the blog also.. But what I would suggest is:
1) Try to see each individual investment and try to book out your investment in whatver stocks where you are getting good profits i.e you can look to take out your investment amount and keep some quantity of shares (after making your investment free) if you think they can give good returns as they would be free shares for you as you would have taken out your investment.
2) You can also use another option of reducing some position where you have lot of investment.
3) Most importantly you need to bring down your investment in terms of companies being invested as 110 is too big a list, Its more like a Mutual fund 🙂 As an individual you can never track so many companies, ideal case would be to have 15-20 stocks or max say 25-30 stocks for your long term investment and some other stocks for short term knowing how much you can track.
4) July 2013 is 3 yrs away and I would say do not try to think in that respect but see that once market goes up and there is big momentum and stocks start rising like they did in end of 2007 you should start booking out for sure.
5) Finally you also need to look at cash flow you need and what you want to keep in market and take the risk and what you want to book out and invest in something else. This is your own risk analysis based on your personal committments.
Nilesh.
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 15, 2010 @ 8:31 pm
Dear Nilesh,
Thanks for your valuable suggestions especially at point number 4. I am a self taught person, so in the beginning when markets crashed I accumulated stocks of lot of companies in small quatities from 25-300 shares of each. As I became wise and started making some money I bought shares in big quantities from 500-5000 shares of each. I also rolled Rs 8 lac of my profits into this portfolio. I did some blunders also. Some stocks like Aban, Punj Lloyd, Orchid chemicals, NMDC, ICSA and Bartronics which I bought at rock bottom prices; I did not sell them when they attained the peaks and you know where they are now. Although, I am still in gains of 20-50% with these stocks but this is what greed can do. I intend to hold these stocks for more time and wait for them to go higher. I need your opinion on these stocks. All of them (except orchid chemicals) seem to be fundamentally sound.
Best regards
Sunil
Comment by Sunil Mamgain — June 16, 2010 @ 8:10 am
Hi Sunil,
Regarding the shares you mentioned:
ABAN -> as you know it has come down significantly due to unfortunate fundamental reason and it has taken support around 620 levels from where it is bouncing back.. It could probably go to 820 levels also and then 1090 but then for this to happen there has to be good results and the effect of the rig which was exploded in accident should be known. Once share has stabilised probably in medium term it can go up. But if it goes below 620 or so then can even go to 530 levels or so.
Punj Lloyd -> This share has been mentioned numerous times and fundamentally it has been disappointing and if you are making profit, better exit and switch to other companies or keep a watch for another couple of qtrs and see if things improve.. Because order book is good but the problem is execution so if this can improve then it has potential, till then I do not want to invest.
Orchid Chemicals -> There is no clear trend in this share and it goes up and comes down also a lot..Also the prices can be impacted by news which is important factor in its movement. I think you should keep a stop to protect your profit and get out if it goes down again…On upside right no 160-165 could be difficult to pass and then 185…
NMDC -> Well you should have booked out earlier.. Probably no point booking now so hold for now…
ICSA -> Disappointing share and only if it can go over 160 you can expect movement till 200-210 in this stock.. For now seems to be in range only.
Bartronics -> Again a share which has been in range only so keep a stoploss of 137 and keep holding it for now as it is bottom of the range and no point selling here.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 16, 2010 @ 10:14 pm
Thanks a lot buddy, I would go by your advise. You are doing a good work by advising people. Hats off for your efforts in educating the people. Orchid has announced fantastic dividend of Rs 10 per share and I intend to grab that before I sell it off. After all I have 2000 shares bought at 68 so why should I miss that, then I would get out of this stock for ever. I would keep on bothering you in future also. With best regards
sunil
Comment by Sunil Mamgain — June 17, 2010 @ 9:22 am
Hi Sunil,
No problem. You are welcome.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 17, 2010 @ 7:50 pm
Hi Nilesh!
Need your comments on TIL(TRACTORS INDIA LTD)
Comment by ami — June 15, 2010 @ 7:27 am
Hi Ami,
Do you hold it? Then it seems to be strong and with monsoon season to be good the prospects look OK for now. If it can stay above 495 then it can go to 515-520 levels and then above it can go even to 550-560 levels. The stock has historically made a high of 800 when markets peaked but then those were too high levels.. For now just keep holding the stock and watch levels mentioned on upside.. Do trail stoploss for ensuring you protect some of your profits..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 15, 2010 @ 8:37 pm
Nilesh ,
What is your take on Hindalco and Tata Steel ?
Thanks .
Comment by abid — June 15, 2010 @ 12:12 am
Hi Abid,
They have corrected a lot and at lower levels but the way they fell and came down i did not like it so unless it consolidates and show strength better to stay out.. Unless you are good at trading then buy them when they fall a lot for consecutive days and get out on bounce else these shares and sector would be very volatile and tracking global markets, dollar strength and US data … so you have to see lot of things.. so better watch them for now and if you have investment horizon keep adding some part of your overall qty on each correction.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 15, 2010 @ 12:22 am
Hi Nilesh,
Can you please advice how about investing in j.b.chemicals at cmp.
Comment by Rahul — June 14, 2010 @ 11:15 am
Hi Rahul,
Not sure what is your horizon but if you buy into this stock then keep 70 as stoploss so it is around 12-13% below CMP so either you wait for correction and then enter at lower levels so your risk is lower or buy half of what you want to buy and then buy remaining later. In terms of movement stock looks OK for now and it can again make a move up and go to 90-95 levels in medium term and be in this range and further movement can be expected once the intermediates highs is taken out.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 15, 2010 @ 12:08 am
Hi Nilesh
What is short-term target (3m) for Finolex industries?
Thanks
Vivek
Comment by Vivek — June 14, 2010 @ 8:44 am
Hi Vivek,
If you have tracked this share you would have noticed it moves in one direction and make a big move and then also come down same way…. So it is very difficult to have a trending movement for this stock. The strategy should be to sell out in momentum and wait for correction and buy again. My suggestion is to not think about it for 3 months and if you have it sell half around 80-84 levels (current intermediate highs) and then see if it can cross it and if it does then you can probably see 90-95 levels. On lower side 65-70 seems to be good support areas. So keep around that as stoploss to protect your profits. I do not think unless this qtr results come good there would be major movement in this stock and it might be in range of 65-85 but yes if it goes over 85 you can expect some good movement.. So trade in range.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 15, 2010 @ 12:03 am
Thanks!
Comment by Vivek — June 15, 2010 @ 9:04 am
Hi Nilesh
would you pl. advice on TRIL.
Is any further upward movement left in medium term?
Comment by ami — June 13, 2010 @ 11:23 pm
Hi Ami,
I have advised on TRIl for longterm so yes, I expect mvoement on higher side from her in medium to long term.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 13, 2010 @ 11:53 pm
Would like to know your view on punjlloyd @ 119,
anikind @ 58,
goldinfra @ 26
balramchin @ 80
suzlon @ 56
Should I hold or switch to some other stocks. plz. advice
Comment by Rajan — June 13, 2010 @ 10:28 pm
Hi Rajan,
For Punjlloyd there has been lot said so refer to those comments… Company has to start showing good results (execution capabilities) else this share can just be a big underperformer.
Anikind -> I think 53 is very good support levels and it might not break from there and on higher side it can go 70 and then even 85 levels in medium term so keep holding it and to protect your loss, can keep that as stoploss..
Goldinfra -> I guess you should get out of this stock.. it gives a movement one odd day and then again come back down.. no point being in such stock.
Suzlon-> Stock broke 54 levels and again came up but in long term there could be some value in this stock and can go higher but it can even go to 45-47 levels on lower side…. as it has looked weak..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 15, 2010 @ 12:20 am
Hi Nilesh,
What is your call on Fortis Helathcare (In News)? Is it good to enter in CMP as trading buy? What could be the target?
Narayan
Comment by Narayan — June 13, 2010 @ 12:47 pm
Hi Narayan,
It is difficult to speculate or give target on stocks like this which are in news related to the acquisition of Parkway hotel and the possibility of a competition with Malaysian Khazana firm who is also trying to take majority stake in Parkway.. The stock corrected from around 190 levels to 135 and now making a move with market and has come to 150.. I think around 155-160 levels it would find resistance but any positive news for Fortis can take it higher but it is not known. On lower side seems 135 is base and if it is broken this can come to even 115-120 levels but for now it could just be in range and track the news so stay away from trading this stock for now as even in intraday it can show movement on either side depending on news.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 15, 2010 @ 12:15 am
Hi,
Can u please comment on these shares on 6 month perspective?
Jayshree Tea
HANUNG TOYS & TEXTILES
Jubliant Food
C&C Construction
Comment by Sreedevi — June 10, 2010 @ 9:56 am
Hi Sreedevi,
Jayshree Tea -> It has corrected a lot and took some support around 228-230 levels which is near term bottom but if this is broken then it can go to 210 levels and below it to 180… At this moment stock looks weak but yes once market stabilises and stock also shows same sort of movement then you can look into this stock. For now dont get into stock.
Hanung – It has seen almost 90% rise earlier and since then has corrected from 270 levels and again trading above 200 levels. The way stock moved, it should now consolidate at these levels or lower but this is a good stock to enter on corrections….
Jubilant Foodworks -> Should do good as part of India consumption story and should stay in 230-250 levels on lower side and on upside you can see 350 and then 400 levels (recent highs) again on this stock in 6 months…
C&C Construction -> It has been a rangebound stock with negative bias and right now near 220 levels but it is broadly in a range with 270 at higher end and 180-200 on lower side, so you can look to trade as per this.. For now stock has held to 220 levels and can go back again to 240+ levels but some strong movement can only come once it goes above
intermediate highs as it has been in range for long.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 10, 2010 @ 9:53 pm
Hi Nilesh
Can i buy Aban at CMP,Please Advice, and also i am also looking at Sesa Goa, pls your thoughts on it, thanks
Comment by Satish — June 9, 2010 @ 10:33 am
Hi Satish,
Not sure what is your horizon but Aban is weak and it is just forming a base and trading at lower levels only and it breaks 600-630 levels then it can go to even 520 levels … But yes it if stabilises and rise from here it might go up to 750-800 levels but I would wait for it to show positive momentum before getting into it.
Sesa Goa is a good company but then it is volatile and movements are huge on either side… Ofcourse if it comes again to 280-300 levels I would buy atleast half of what I want to buy.. The problem is if market falls on global cues then sesa goa is first share to be affected due to this being so closely linked to global iron ore prices and how economy does across globe but it can be looked at as investment….and if you are lucky try to book profits in case after you buy at low levels and it goes up 8-10%..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 9, 2010 @ 10:46 pm
Hi Nilesh,
I have bought vinati organics @ 78 and adhunik metaliks @ 104. I would like to take your suggestion to hold or sell these stocks. I have bought these stocks in the veiw of one month and I can hold these one more month. I request you to share your view on these stocks.
Comment by Siva — June 4, 2010 @ 6:54 pm
Hi Siva,
Very difficult to say whether you can make good profit or get back your investment in 1 month due to the high volatility in market which changes direction every day or even hour with any news… with negative bias.. Vinati is difficult to reach78 unless it can sustain 70 levels and stay there… else if it breaks 66 can go to 60 also. On adhunik it bounced back from 92 levels but with market going down, metals would go down quickly and so I would say range is for now 92 on lower side and upper side it can go to 120 levels or so but its going to be volatile ride for it.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 6, 2010 @ 10:38 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Pls give me the support and resistance level of the following with stoploss.
1.National Fert
2.Zensar technology
3.rel Comm
thank you
Joseph
Comment by Joseph — June 4, 2010 @ 4:56 am
Hi Joseph,
National Fert -> Support should be 95 and resistance around 113-115 levels… its been in range only for now between 95 to 115.
Zensar Tech -> Its in a range of 295 to 355. THe movement has been either in straight line towards upside or below in this range… And with market being so volatile it is difficult but this is broad range
Rel Comm – This is news based stock so could be difficult to say but upside seems to be 195 where it has nto been able to cross and below you can take recent lows as support.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 6, 2010 @ 10:20 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Have you ever tracked scrip shirpur gold ? In moneycontrol board for the scrip many( Many of them are genuine boarders with good track record ) are suggesting it to be a potential multibagger…Please share your view if you have any details regarding company..personally i couldn’t get much details regarding company operations..
Comment by Anand — June 3, 2010 @ 11:13 pm
Hi Anand,
To me such companies would count as speculative and not investor friendly as you would see there is complete lack of transparency in knowing when operations start, revenue potential etc.. the company has already gone so high from 50 levels to 250 recently and now corrected to 150 levels… I guess it might go higher as the operators or promoters can make shares rise or fall on news and play with investors money. Sorry but I cannot advise on a company like this where you cannot see any transparency.. If you have to buy then keep a 135-140 stoploss for sure as from those levels stock has bounced back multiple times so if that is broken it would go down a lot…
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 3, 2010 @ 11:23 pm