Please post all your Generic queries / discussion points / inputs on the blog for the month of May 2010, in this section as comments. Any query or comments specific to a post on the blog should be posted under that section only and not under this Q&A.
Thanks
Nilesh
Tracking, Trading and Investing in the Markets 
Hi Nilesh
Pl guide me on 1.Nectar Life and NTPC as buy, hold or sell on current prices.
May I add that Nectar 4th qr. results are not as better as to their 3rd qr results.NTPC has since long testing patience.
Comment by ami — June 3, 2010 @ 8:43 pm
Hi Ami,
NTPC is a very defensive stock and would always be like this and it is not a stock to be considered moving with great momentum unless some very good news is there.. it is a range bound stock and has been for a year or so between 190-230… So if you are looking for volatility and momentum calls, then you should exit out unless you want to be defensive and look for 10-15% gain then you can look to buy NTPC near lower levels….
On Nectar Life, it was showing good momentum earlier and is now in range and 42 level has been dificult to break so if on upside it can go past 42 then some more run up can come or else on lower side if 35 or so is broken then can come to even 30 levels.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 3, 2010 @ 11:09 pm
Would like to know your view on punjlloyd @ 117,
anikind @ 58,
Should I hold or switch to some other stocks. plz. advice
Comment by Rajan — June 3, 2010 @ 5:14 pm
Hi Rajan,
Regarding Punjlloyd lot has been written in other comments so not repeating it here again. About Anikind, keep a stoploss of 53 and on upside 62 can be seen and above it can go to 67-70 levels also but depends on market movement also.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 3, 2010 @ 10:54 pm
hi nilesh,
i want to take fresh entry in andrew yule @33 give ur view.
thanks
rajeev
Comment by rajeev verma — June 3, 2010 @ 8:09 am
Hi,
I do not know why you want to enter in a stock which is volatile and moves are so speculative… But anyways if you want to then keep a stoploss and keep trading it, that is get out if you get 8-10% return in short time and exit… Do not keep holding it as the moves are on either side. Above 35 it can go to 40 levels on downside if 30 is broken then it can go to 25 levels and stay there for long time..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 3, 2010 @ 8:33 pm
Hi Nilesh,
What is your take on Hotel Leela ?
Rgds
Navaneeth M
Comment by Navaneeth M — June 2, 2010 @ 11:12 pm
Hi Navaneeth,
It has just bounced from support levels of 43-44 and it has some good support at 40-42 levels which it can probably sustain… On upside it has made tops around 50 and 52 levels and I see resistance in 48-52 levels and it cannot be smooth ride for it. I do not know what is your view in terms of time so if you are looking to trade then try to look at it around 43-44 but knowing it can correct to major support of 35 levels also if market corrects… but seeing the trading patter for last 6-8 months it has been trading between 43 and 52 and right now it is in that range only.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 3, 2010 @ 10:51 pm
Sir,
Your take on the foll stocks:
Graphite India
Empee Distilleries
Cipla
Is it a buy at curr levels?
Rgds,
Sonia
Comment by Sonia — June 2, 2010 @ 9:10 pm
Hi Sonia,
All shares seem to be in sideways or consolidation mode… I do not know what trading gains you are look at and the time period.
Graphite -> If it comes below 89 levels then it would be weak and consolidate at lower levels only…
Empee -> It has slowly come down from high levels.. It bounces back from lower levels but keep making lower highs, so the stock is not a strong one in terms of long term uptrend.. but if it can go above 125-130 levels and sustain above it then it can show some strength.
Cipla -> Keep a stoploss of 300 on this as this low has been maintained for more than 6 months now. On upside share goes around 350 levels and faces resistance.. It is right now in middle so can go either way but this is the broad range for the stock.. In immediate short term it can face resistance around 332-335 levels.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 2, 2010 @ 10:53 pm
thnk u.
Comment by Sonia — June 3, 2010 @ 8:39 am
Hi Nilesh,
I have 100 shares of Educomp @ 700/- and 50 shares of Aban @ 850, now both the shares fall down….
I need your suggestion do you want me to hold/Average/Exit from it.
Thanx,
Khaja.
Comment by Khaja — June 2, 2010 @ 5:31 pm
Hi Khaja,
Both are strange shares which are good for trading with stoploss and not for investment.. As just see Educomp comes to 400 goes to 1000 and then come to 400… so whats the point in entering this stock….unless you buy it at right price.. Right now the bounce is because it was oversold.. It fell from 750-800 to 450 levels so now it could bounce to 575-600 levels… I would not say you should average it now for sure… You might get your price back if market momentum comes back and all midcaps and smallcaps run… But try to exit when time comes or else try to exit even at 650 levels or with minimum loss.
For Aban, it has been an unfortunate incident which brought it down so much and now again the pressure of its balance sheet would be questioned.. It seems to be taking support around 675 levels and if it can hold this and bounce back over 720 levels then it can go to 850 levels near your price but if 675 is broken down then it can come to 630 levels and if this should be broken then it can go to even sub 500 levels. Ofcourse I do not say it will happen, just giving levels to you. So just hope it can sustain now and go over 720 levels.
Do not average.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 2, 2010 @ 10:36 pm
Dear Nilesh,
I have purchased Vijaya bank @ 60.
What is the future of stock. Please suggest.
Regards,
Abha
Comment by Abha — June 2, 2010 @ 12:14 am
Hi Abha,
I do not know what is your outlook but for now it seems can go to 65 and then 70 levels also.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 2, 2010 @ 10:23 pm
Hi Nilesh…
Can i buy Suzlon & Balrampur chinni at this level ???
Comment by Rajan — June 1, 2010 @ 11:47 pm
Hi Rajan,
I think you have already bought Balrampur as you have asked another query on it. Regarding Suzlon, it seems to be going down, could give bounce as oversold and would be trading bounce only but to me, it seems it can go to 47 now if 54 is broken… At 47 levels if it can sustain and bounce then you can enter with 41 as stoploss….as that would be low of 2008 fall also.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — June 2, 2010 @ 10:25 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Do you think time has come to enter punj Lloyd.. 120 levels looks attractive for me( for 3 to 6 months perspective ). Please share your view..
Comment by Anand — May 31, 2010 @ 6:06 pm
Hi Anand,
Company has consistently disappointed in results and execution so do not expect that market will keep trusting the management forever? I would not enter into this stock even though it might go up 30-40 rs from there as I think it can go to 100 levels also and a falling share can keep falling whether it is undervalued or not… So for now wait for stock to first stop falling and consolidate and form a base before you think of entering.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 31, 2010 @ 10:02 pm
Hi Anand,
I agree with Nilesh’s point of view. I hv tracked the fall all the way from 230 where I used to hold this, but Simon Carves as a problem refuses to go away. This past quarter was probably the last quarter if reports are to be believed. You could buy it as a trading buy – but remember the risk is it could fall all the way to 90-100 levels as well. So from a 15-18 month perspective you are safe, but 6 months – it’s hard to predict.
Comment by Kisalay Somani — June 2, 2010 @ 1:09 am
Anand,
Some good and insightful analysis on Punj Lloyd, in today’s edition of Mint. It looks more likely to head towards 90 levels – only strength is it’s order book !
http://www.livemint.com/2010/06/02230404/Dismal-performance-drags-down.html
Comment by Kisalay Somani — June 3, 2010 @ 1:52 am
Thanks Nilesh and Kisalay for your valuable suggestions..Hope we can accumulate punj lloyd around 90-100…
Comment by Anand — June 3, 2010 @ 10:52 pm
hi nilesh, how are you . Would you plaese give your advise on the following :
1. 1500 rohltd @ 80,
2. 1000 deltacorp @ 47
3. 500 raincom @ 215
4. 200 hdil @ 220
5. 1000 zeenews @ 15
thank you,
Rajan
Comment by Rajan Munjal — May 30, 2010 @ 11:11 am
Hi Rajan
Rohltd -> You should have exited it when it went below 75… Now 70 is an important support and if that is broken then even 65 and then 60 too could come up .. I do not know what is your horizon but if share can hold 70 then it can bounce from here.
Deltacorp-> I do not like the company and nor the share price give any optimism… To me this is a speculative stock and rather prefer to be out of such stocks rathern than buying into them.
Raincom-> It has been weak since it was below 190 levels and now if 135-137 level is broken then even 115 can come up…..
HDIL -> Again a stock in sector which keeps on underperforming.. Probably you are making some money and could make further if market is able to go up , On upside 250 should be sustained then 280 can come up.. On downside if recent lows are broken then even 170 can be seen in this stock.
Zee news -> Sorry do not follow scrips under rs 20 or so and cannot give analysis on them as there movement is within rs and very difficult to give some input.
On suggestion -> Always keep stoploss when you buy such stocks in good amount of quantity as else you would keep holding them and lose opportunity somewhere else.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 31, 2010 @ 10:16 pm
Hi Nilesh,
I have some nos. Crest Animation @ 100 . Can you tell anything about its long term prospects ? There is a lot of talk that the company will do well due to the impending release of its 3D animation movie in US in September 2010 . Are they credible ?
Comment by Mhadev — May 28, 2010 @ 4:55 pm
Hi Mhadev,
Please do not base the expectations on one movie coming up… I would rather prefer the company to first perform and then think about entering into stock. animation industry has show great results outside India but the amount of capital and work that goes need to be shown in execution by Indian companies… It might do well and be a great long term prospect but I would not get into the stock because of this impending release of the movie.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 31, 2010 @ 9:58 pm
Sir,
I hold few shares of mphasis @632. It has gone down aftr the results. shld i avg out or exit??
Sonia
Comment by Sonia — May 28, 2010 @ 1:56 pm
Hi Sonia,
Not sure if you want to average out now as it is still falling… It has run up a lot earlier and was consolidating at higher end but now it has come down and it is important to see where it stop and start consolidating before you average out.. But it has broken a strong uptrend and unless it comes back up strongly, it would be only giving sideways or down movement… so nothing you can do now unless you want to exit out as your losses are more than you can take.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 31, 2010 @ 9:49 pm
Dear Nilesh,
Pl.let me know what is support & resistence of Mercator Lines Ltd after recent result.
Comment by Rakesh Verma — May 27, 2010 @ 9:43 pm
Hi Rakesh,
Consider 41 as support for the stock and if it goes below it then it can go into a lower range of 32-41 while on upside 51-52 would be resistance area for it.. It needs to consolidate in this range and form a base as it has been so weak for some time now.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 27, 2010 @ 11:33 pm
Hi Nilesh,
I was ona tour of middeleat and I could not browse the net for the last 8 days. pls let me know the right steps to be taken on following
1. Atlas Cycles @ 213
2. SRF @ 227
3.tatmotors @788
thank you,
Joseph, Kuwait
Comment by Joseph — May 26, 2010 @ 11:05 pm
Hi Joseph,
Atlas Cycle -> The stock has been trading in narrow range in this volatile market. It is near your buy price only and if you do not want to wait for stoploss of 200 and feel worried with this volatility and want to ensure capital is protected, you can look to exit it around your buy price as it has been showing 213-215 price levels.
SRF -> It went to 240+ levels but got hit by this market volatility and downtrend… It is near 220 levels and just 3% lower than your buy price which is not bad compared to how stocks have been hit badly.. Same comment as above on exit else you wait for market to turn around and wait for target but the way market is moving , movement or trend is changing daily and difficult to track.. So you can look to exit here and protect your capital.
Tata Motors -> It has broken supports and got a bounce again so see how it goes further up but I am not sure if it can go 788 levels and sustain above it… So For now it has mvoed a lot from low and cant be easy for reaching your buy price or above it.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 27, 2010 @ 9:11 pm
Just to add to that, I follow Tata Motors pretty closely. 680 levels has always been proven to be a good support. You might see an intraday or a 1-2 day fall to 650-655 levels but the bounce from there is usually sharp. You should see 780-805 levels soon on this stock, although a retracement to 720 levels was expected as it did today. Now watch for 705 levels and a bounce from thereabout.
Comment by Kisalay Somani — June 2, 2010 @ 1:14 am
Sir,
What is an idr. How does it work? And is it worth investing in the ipo of Stanchart IDR??
Rgds,
Sonia
Comment by Sonia — May 26, 2010 @ 12:40 pm
Hi Sonia,
IDR is Indian Depository Receipt and to compare it could be like ADR which Indian Companies issue… So for a foreign company tapping Indian market it is similar. IDRS are instruments used by foreign companies to raise rupee denominated money in India. These are basically derivative instruments with shares as the underlying asset, which will be deposited with an overseas custodian who will hold shares on behalf of a domestic depository. IDRs will be issued through a public offer in India in the demat form and will be listed on Indian exchanges. Trading and settlement will be similar to those of Indian shares. Ten IDRs will be equal to one equity share of Stanchart. It will be selling 22 crore IDRs, meaning, if it aims to raise around Rs.2250 to Rs.3375 crore, each IDR would be priced around Rs.105 to Rs.115. The prospectus of Stanchart gives room for a 5% discount, which will be determined by the benchmark UK pricing next week. So this means, each equity share of Stanchart, when it gets listed, will be priced around Rs.1050. It is expected to get listed on the Indian bourses in June. An IDR holder acquires the same rights as a shareholder, except that he/she can neither attend the AGM nor vote on resolutions. NRIs can trade in the IDRs.
On taxation side, dividend is taxed and short term and capital gains can be taxed as any other asset and not like equity share where you only pay 15% and 0% for short term and long term tax…. So because of uncertainty and other issues, better to give a miss. Although I know the bank is really good and did a great work in financial crisis and might have a great future but unless all rules are clear of taxation, you should be away unless you would like to take exposure to a global bank.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 26, 2010 @ 10:03 pm
Sonia, I agree with Nilesh view. As a retail investor you might get listing gains – but almost everything is negative from a taxation point of view. Dividends, Short Term Capital Gains Tax, along with Long Term Capital Gains Tax as well (since IDRs aren’t covered by STT). Subscribe only if you are interested for listing gains – but my personal view is it’s going to be just marginal. I think you’ll get better returns on one of other tips by Nilesh 🙂
Comment by Kisalay Somani — May 27, 2010 @ 2:47 am
Thnk u so much for such an exhaustive explanation.. appreciate!
Thnk u once again
Rgds,
Sonia
Comment by Sonia — May 27, 2010 @ 10:20 pm
@Mr. Somani: I agree 🙂
Comment by Sonia — May 27, 2010 @ 10:21 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Would like to know your view on tech mahindra @ 684, dhanalakshmi bank @ 150, genus power @ 190, vinati organics @ 78. Should I hold or switch to some other stocks which have undergone much deeper correction for better bounce back?
Comment by Anand — May 26, 2010 @ 9:09 am
Hi Anand,
I am not sure what is your horizon here because with current market conditions and way the stocks have corrected it is not easy to expect bounce without volatility. In absolute terms stocks might not do anything but in volatility could show wild movements.
About Tech Mahindra, looks weak and made new low today from its previous lows and if further weakens then can go to 600 levels but if market stabilises and it can bounce from here then can give some bounce to 700 levels or so…. Probably look to exit then but yes it is weak stock now and probably in long term do good but if have a chance to exit do that as unless it forms a base and show relative strength, I do not expect good movement here.
Dhanlakshmi Bank is very strong and has been able to withstand the fall.. Keep a stoploss of 140 and keep holding it.
Genus Power -> Keep holding it as it would give good returns to you in medium term or long term and is doing OK at current levels.
Vinati posted good results but have finally corrected and gone below 70 levels which was holding for some time.. it can go to 60 levels and then to even 54.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 26, 2010 @ 9:28 pm
I have 200 shares of Spicejet, shall i hold it or exit please advice.
Thx & Rgds,
SKKM
Comment by SKKM — May 24, 2010 @ 6:35 pm
Hi,
The stocks in airline sector are all volatile and their earnings too could be easily impacted with any downturn in economy or inflation or other factors, and they are in a very competitive industry where cost pressures are high.. Spicejet came out with decent results and have been an outperformer but then i do not know what is your buy price and what profit you are making so make sure you book profits and keep a stoploss on downfall… As such stock has big support around 45 levels and if that is broken do exit it.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 25, 2010 @ 9:52 pm
This is an interesting qstn. Nilesh, request you to post a poll for how many ppl have actually made money staying invested in Airline Stocks ? My opinion it’s a wonderful day trade – due to the high volatility and huge lot sizes. The aviation sector across the world is in such dire straits – not sure why would one invest in this sector itself ?
Comment by Kisalay Somani — May 27, 2010 @ 2:49 am
Do you have any near by target for Unitec/Essar oil.
Do you know the reason for EDUCOmp solution share price down last time comparing to market down ratio?
Thanks in advance.
Comment by Palani — May 24, 2010 @ 6:13 pm
Hi Palani,
Unitech is now at lower end of its trading range and as support around 62-63 and if that is broken next support is at 58 levels. So you can expect them to hold as of now. On Essar Oil, It should sustain above 118 or else it can go to 107 and then 97 too can be reached. So it is weak now but it has support in intermediate levels now.
Educomp is a high beta stock and always has been a stock which falls a lot more than the market… And now it has come to 450 and should have some support and stability around 400 levels and the steep fall like earlier should be arrested there.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 25, 2010 @ 9:59 pm
Hello Sir,
I have purchased 100 shares of Skumars nationwide @ an avg. price of Rs.77.50.
Today it closed @ Rs.63.55.
So what do you advice, shall I average it or should exit from it.
Rgds
Rahul
Comment by Rahul — May 21, 2010 @ 4:30 pm
Hi Rahul,
I guess on lower side 52-57 leves should be good support… with 57 being first support and if broken then 52 would be not so easy to break…. So I think the way stock made movement earlier it might go up again so no point averaging now or exiting. Let market stabilise and stock also and then you can look at what level it is and then you can think of averaging. so for now hold it.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 24, 2010 @ 12:33 am
Thanks a lot.
Comment by Rahul — May 24, 2010 @ 9:51 am
How does Noida Toll look @ 27-28 as a trading play ? Futures are highly liquid, but I would prefer to trade in equity.
The 52-week low is 23 – so I would assume that can be taken as a Stop Loss.
Recommended tgts in 3 months time-frame ?
Comment by Kisalay — May 21, 2010 @ 10:56 am
Hi,
It had a gap down on Friday and unless it forms a low and stay above it, you cannot call it a bottom is formed so it can go to even 20-23 levels if market does not stabilise and risk aversion continue. I see it as 32-35 on higher side and 20-23 on lower side for next 3 months.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 24, 2010 @ 12:13 am
hi nilesh
pls give idea on suzlon energy @56
i want to take fresh entry in this stock.
regards
rajeev verma
Comment by rajeev verma — May 20, 2010 @ 4:43 pm
Hi Rajeev,
If you want to buy Suzlong then, I think it can be a decent buy around 54 or so levels but be prepared for further fall if market is bad but it is less risky buy at those levels and in long term can give good returns from those levels.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 20, 2010 @ 11:12 pm
Dear Sir,
Can we enter TVS Motors at cmp??
Rgds,
Sonia
Comment by Sonia — May 20, 2010 @ 1:35 pm
Hi Sonia,
The stock has held better than others and its support are quite low, so if you enter now risk is high with market uncertainty. I see 92 as support for now and if it breaks 85 can be seen and then lower. If market stabilises then it might be strong and move upward but why taking risk when stock is at high and has not come down with market significantly that we can buy it as less risky.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 20, 2010 @ 11:10 pm
Ok point noted.
Thnks a ton..
Sonia
Comment by Sonia — May 21, 2010 @ 8:56 am
Dear Sir,
i have Dish TV @ 37.42 and DCB @ 44.65 .In todays fall , both have come to my buying levels. Should i hold or square off. what will be Stop loss or target , if i continue to hold. Further if prices fall further, at what level should i average. Please advice me.
Regards,
Abha
Comment by abha — May 19, 2010 @ 9:38 pm
Hi Abha,
Dish TV -> It can probably come to 35 levels and it breaks that then can come to 32 or 30 levels where you can average if you have to. Regarding DCB, it came out of a big range some time back but now if it goes down again and stuck in a range then there could be issues but for now do not average and see where it stops… if it comes down to 38-35 levels then see market conditions and average but coming there would take lot of fall in the stock and so for now hold both.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 19, 2010 @ 10:47 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Greetings. I have bought Geometric at 136 in 2007. While I understand that they are pioneers in their business the stock is not performing from quite some time. I also understood that the FY10 results are great. Can you pls let me know whether I should continue holding or exit from it? Appreiciate your opinion.
Comment by Ramesh — May 19, 2010 @ 7:17 pm
Hi Ramesh,
You have been in this share for 3 yrs and it has not given any returns to you so it shows there is no point being in it. About the results, well compare to last year it is great and company is showing profits and not losses like last year. The share still trades as overvalued for company like this. For now the share has support around 58-60 levels and if it breaks that then can come to 45 levels but I assume the stock would then be ranging only. It was showing signs of recovery and might do well further in long term but then your cost price is too high.. Either you average at lower levels and then exit or else you exit with loss.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 19, 2010 @ 10:43 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Its slightly difficult to find out here when someone asked about a particular scrip. I tried finding about Shri Renuka Sugar by typing in Post Search field with no matching results. Request, if the search can be made wider to identify a scrip in a question/answer/tip.
Thanks.
Can I know your views on LIC Housing Finance. It dropped by 5% today.
Comment by Ankur — May 19, 2010 @ 6:52 pm
Hi Ankur,
The post search field on site is for searching posts only. There is no option I have seen on the wordpress blog for comments for end users. I have put in a query to support and see if this is possible but the easiest way for you to search comments is do Ctrl-F for search on webpage of Q&A as you would normally do for any search on a webpage, which should solve your problem.
LIC Housing Finance -> It has outperformed in such a big way and you expect people to book profits in such markets and so it has come down… Its 200DMA is quite low at 767 but I do not say it would come down there. For now 900 could be pshycological support and some real support lies around 850 levels.. but it is a strong share and because of its such a big upmove it is quite above the support levels and further correction in market can bring it down but is a strong share.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 19, 2010 @ 10:29 pm
Thanks Nilesh, I appreciate that. Thanks for your advise too.
Comment by Ankur — May 20, 2010 @ 6:19 am
Dear Sir,
Your take on foll stocks for short term:
Apollo Tyres
Core Projects
HCL tech
Thnks & Rgds,
Sonia
Comment by Sonia — May 19, 2010 @ 3:37 pm
Hi Sonia,
Apollo Tyres -> If it breaks 63 levels then next big support is around 55-56 levels so probably it can hold that level and market stabilises and it bounces back.. But for no 63 is support to watch out for. On upside, 70 is level to watch out as it might not cross that.
Core Projects -> It has its 200 DMA at 200 levels and was outperforming since date but with market being so volatile with downward bias, it too has corrected.. If psycological and important support of 200 is broken then it can come to 180-190 levels and its broad range could be 170-190 but seems one of the better and strong shares as per its past price movement compared to market.
HCL Tech -> It has fallen from 52 week high levels due to market conditions… On downside seems 330-350 should be its range but then once market stabilises and it shows stability you can look at it.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 19, 2010 @ 10:17 pm
Thnk u.
Sonia
Comment by Sonia — May 19, 2010 @ 10:33 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Why KPIT Cummins is losing/ Any idea?What is ur advice? Hold or sell?
Comment by subhiksha — May 19, 2010 @ 11:33 am
Hi Subhiksha,
Everything is falling almost and such midcaps / small caps would always fall more… The stock when came down below 120 it has been weak and then 110 has made it weak further. Now 90 should be on the cards and if that is also broken, would not be surprised if it comes to 75 levels. I do not know how long term you are in the market… because due to hightened volatility in the market the shares would fall and rise wildly.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 19, 2010 @ 9:51 pm
Hi Nilesh,
I am holding Himadri chemicals from 400 levels. The stock is very resilient. However with the global uncertainity in due course no stock will be spared. I am in a dilemma whether to book profit and enter at lower levels. It doesnt seem to get lower than Rs 500. Also I have rohit ferrotech purchased at Rs 50/- and spicejet at Rs 55/-. please advise me keeping in view the global economic turmoil. I donot want to get caught on the wrong side like in sub prime crisis time.
Comment by Umesh — May 19, 2010 @ 8:37 am
Hi Umesh,
Depends on your view in the market. Regarding HCIL, its a strong company and it it breaks 500 levels then it can come to 450 levels and on breaking below it could be bad for it but I think if you are in for long term hold it for now and keep 450 as stoploss or else you are getting very worried, book half the profit. About the other shares, Rohit Ferro tech -> it has a big base around 38-40 levels so might come there and stay there itself… so see if you can let your loss go to that level then keep holding it as for almost a year it was at those levels…. With metal shares going down, this is also bound to go down… Regarding spicejet, it is just near your buy price, so why dont you exit to be on safe side and minimize the loss and worry ???
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 19, 2010 @ 9:56 pm
Hi Nilesh,
How are you?
Writing to you after long time, as I feel this market is giving good oppurtunity to buy!
Buddy whats your take on following Scripts in coming 2 months:
1. Sail (bought @ 106)
2. Gmdc (bought @ 147)
3. Tata Motors
4. GSPL
Thanks & regards,
Mohsin
Comment by Mohsin — May 19, 2010 @ 12:23 am
Hi Mohsin,
I am fine, thanks.
Sail -> It has good support around 195-200 which is being tested now and if it breaks that then further downfall cannot be ruled out but it has support at around every 10-15 rs and in worst case scenario major support is around 150-160 levels. And if it can sustain 195-200 levels and rebound then it is good for the scrip.
GMDC -> I think you should have exited long back but anyways now if 115-117 is broken it can come 95-100 levels also and is a weak share… Unless some speculative or news come across, I do not think it can go back to higher levels of 150 for now.
Tata Motors -> It has broken down and can come to 650-660 levels and if that level is not held then it would come even to 600-620 levels… Was a strong share but now has a taken a fall due to it being a global company with global sales forming a good portion of it…
GSPL -> Has been a lot strong share and has a good support around 84 levels and if it can hold good for it else it can come to 75-80 levels.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 19, 2010 @ 10:09 pm
thnks!
Comment by Mohsin — May 21, 2010 @ 8:42 am
dear sir
what is your opinion on the following stocks at current price
(can i go for a short term safe buy)
1.Onmobile global
2.Educomp solutions
3.aban offshore
4.Tulip telecom
5.Sathyam computers
6.Maruti
with love
sunilkumar.s
Comment by sunilkumar.s — May 18, 2010 @ 9:16 pm
Hi Sunil,
Onmobile -> This is a weak stock and has come down so much.. I would not be surprised if it comes to 260 levels in some time. This stock generally moves in big way so it might happen that it can show some big upmove also but I would stay away from it.. If it can go back above 360 and sustain then we should track it else it is down only.
Educomp -> It can come to 540-550 levels and on breaking it come to 480 levels so again do not enter into it now..Wait for it to first stop falling and form a base.
Aban Offshore -> I cannot guesstimate the loss from the current accident with aban pearl but let the news get factored in completely then you can get into this share because it is at attractive price for long term but this revenue loss would affect its debt paying and how quickly it can be brought up and running, so lets see.. But it can even come to 670 levels also
Tulip -> This is more of a stronger share and can be bought but keep 850 as stoploss or else if you want lower then 820 as stoploss. It should cross 950 else I see resistance around 920-950 levels.
Satyam Computers -> Why do you want to buy this share when it does nothing?
Maruti -> On breaking 1220 it can even come to 1120 levels and is weak so avoid.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 18, 2010 @ 10:35 pm
Hi Nilesh,
What is your call on Shri Renuka sugar and sugar industry as such. This being a cyclic business, what is the right time to invest? This stock has been recommended as Buy on moneycontrol by Mr Sudarshan Sukhani. Please advise.
Comment by Ankur — May 18, 2010 @ 3:28 pm
Hi Ankur,
There were few queries earlier on this and I mentioned to wait for them to drop further as renuka could come to 50 levels and it seems it has taken support and bounced from there… The good point is that risk reward ratio is better and even if you buy it now the idea would be that your loss would be less as the share is now trading at very low value… But do not expect big way movement in it, you can play it in a range .. It has not formed a range right now but if you have realistic expectations then you can probably look to enter in it but try to trade rather than being invested for few months? If you have long term view then also you can stay but then whenever you get good momentum in these stocks then try to book them at specific intervals. Balrampur chini seems to be forming a base around 70-72 levels. I am not saying they cannot fall but the risk and the type of fall that would come not be severe now and you would get opportunities to exit even if you get stuck or can average later if it falls further. But yes, it might give movement in a day or so and might underperform overall… So take your call.
Nilesh
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 18, 2010 @ 8:31 pm
mr. nilesh
i have heard a lot about your comments from my friends. i would like some advice from you.
I have about Rs 30000 to invest. i want to hold for a period of about 6- 8months.
Any scrips ( under @100) you can suggest?
thanks a lot
Nikhil
Comment by nikhil — May 18, 2010 @ 3:18 pm
Hi Nikhil,
If you have realistic expectations then look at following shares:
Electrosteel casting trading around 48
Also if you can look 120 rs share then see Uflex.
I think they can give decent returns of 20% + in 6-8 months.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 18, 2010 @ 8:27 pm
Hi Nilesh…
Can i enter THOMASCOOK & Fmgoetze at this point?
Thanks 🙂
Comment by Sajan — May 18, 2010 @ 10:18 am
Hi All,
Fmgoetze is falling and can give bounce only because it is oversold levels but now it can even go to 90 and 85 levels so do not buy now.. Let is give a bounce and again fall and form a base to be sure that bottom has been formed…. So ignore it for now.. is a weak share which has underperformed a lot in recent times.
Thomas cook can be looked at but with 58-60 as stoploss as below it can go to 52-54 levels also….
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 18, 2010 @ 8:24 pm
Hi Nilesh,
I wanted to know your views on Kesoram India. I am holding 175 shares @ Rs 359.00. I am willing to hld it for long term. Should I accumulate at these levels or it can go further down. Also not much info available on the last results submitted by the company. Pl advise.
Comment by Ankur — May 17, 2010 @ 11:15 pm
Hi Ankur,
I think you asked this question earlier and I responded with this: “Hi Ankur,
If you look at results and how results have come out for past 5 quarters then you would notice that the company has been steadily dropping its profits and this does not look good.. Yes the share price has not performed that bad over those period but then it cannot sustain prices like this if company keeps performing like this. I will not be surprised if it comes to 300-315 levels and breaking it come to even 260 levels. It has broken 200 day Moving average also and see if it does not sustain and go above 340-350 levels soon then you should exit as I see it going down.. Only thing that can change is good results in coming quarters.
Nilesh”
So based on this, for now see 300 levels and as it goes down below it can go to even 260 levels. Company needs to show good results. I had good hopes with this company earlier when it was trading higher but now it has disappointed…. Results are there on bse and nse site.
So if you need to average wait now and let it form a base and stop falling.
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 17, 2010 @ 11:24 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Sorry for bothering you unnecessarily. Thanks for your advice once again.
Comment by Ankur — May 18, 2010 @ 9:57 am
i have purchased 500 seamec@195 and 1000 deltacorp@46. Please you suggest me whether to hold for 1-2 months or can I get out from this once I get my capital
Comment by Rajan — May 17, 2010 @ 9:40 pm
Hi Rajan,
For seamec, posted disappointing results and weak markets, it has come down significantly. I would be surprised if it rebounds so quickly and go back to your price quickly.. I think you should keep this stock for medium to long term and then probably can get good returns. For now it does not seem like it would bounce back any strongly due to bad results and weak markets.
About deltacorp, seems 33 as base and if it can hold this and go over 38 then can go to 42 levels and above it near to your price but would be difficult to go up so quickly. So let these stocks move and come near your price and then whatever trend of market and stocks is take decision accordingly.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 17, 2010 @ 9:51 pm
Hi Nilesh
Thanks for ur valuable comments
Comment by Rajan — May 17, 2010 @ 9:34 pm
And plz also suggest on rohltd and vinatiorga……..
Comment by Rajan — May 17, 2010 @ 12:36 am
Hi Rajan,
For both stocks, results have not come out and if either of them give disappointing results, it would bring in more selling. Both of them have 70 levels as strong support and if this can hold and they bounce back from here then it should be OK. But you should keep an eye on results (Vinati on 19th) and Royal Orchid (27th May). On upside both of them is in range of 70-80 or 70-85 and unless it breaks on either side it is hold .
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 17, 2010 @ 6:33 pm
Hi nilesh…
i have 700 Raincom@215.00.plz. advice me should i hold or exit.
i had already lost a lot of money in this…
Comment by Rajan — May 17, 2010 @ 12:34 am
Hi Rajan,
The share came down drastically after a very disappointing results and went upto 150 levels and it seems this could be a bottom unless market and shares turn downward again. Now stock is weak and for it to come back will take time and some good news.. Immediate resistance is around 175 levels and once it goes over it, it needs to go back above 195 and sustain for any further upmoves… For now you can hope this can hold recent lows and try to consolidate and move upward. Atleast in recent week it has not broken its recent lows and trying to sustain these levels which is good as for a falling stock to stop requires some sort of base formation and consolidation.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 17, 2010 @ 6:21 pm
Hi Nilesh,
What are your views on Piramal Health, Alstom Projects & Great Offshore?
Regards,
Rajeev
Comment by Rajeev — May 15, 2010 @ 3:38 pm
Hi Rajeev,
Piramal Health came down after results sharply and bounced back today… You should consider the recent low as stoploss and hold it and see if the share can take out recent highs. If it consolidates at these levels with upward bias then you can keep holding but just keep a stoploss based on recent lows or your risk appetite.
Alstom Projects : See this stock has been in big range and went up earlier but has come down again and see if 570 holds or not.. If it does not hold then it has major support around 520-530 levels… So depending on it you can keep holding it.
Great Offshore : Is weak share and has major support around 390-400 levels and so unless it heads higher and take out recent top, it is weak and going to be sideways or with downward bias.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 17, 2010 @ 6:17 pm
hi ,
whats ur view on gayatri project @455? i m looking for short term .
Comment by kamlesh s n — May 14, 2010 @ 12:02 pm
Hi,
In this momentum I might not be surprised if it goes upto 500 if 470 can be taken out. Just keep an eye on results which are still not out and also market conditions but seem to be strong share and can be bought on correction if it comes down and if already bought then hold it…
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 16, 2010 @ 10:53 pm
hi nilesh,
thanx a lot for ur views on alok industries. i will get out of it as soon as it reaches around 23-24@.
request guidelines on the following also:-
suzlon energy ( 400, acp- 70.7)
punj lloyd ( 300, acp- 167)
Comment by niren — May 14, 2010 @ 10:23 am
Hi Niren,
I do not know what is your duration period for these stocks because both of them have been weak shares but I assume you bought it recently on correction? Punjlloyd has always been a disappointment with results and seems if 141 is broken would come to 132 levels also. For long term (very long term) both shares can be good but then they are weak shares now and unless your outlook (duration) is known it is difficult so, I think for now hold but look to exit at higher levels.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 16, 2010 @ 11:01 pm
hi nilesh.
im into the market for the long term. as you said, punjlloyd has reached 138 level also. suzlon i dont mind accumulating.
can u suggest some new small cap/midcap stocks 2 buy during this correction?
regards
Niren
Comment by niren — May 17, 2010 @ 3:16 pm
Hi Niren,
Suzlon you can probably buy around 55-60 levels and sell around 90 levels when it comes as that would give very good returns.. Play it in a range only… Regarding other small cap or midcap stocks , I have mentioned some earlier and you can look also at electrosteel, genus power, shiv-vani, seamec (it has posted disappointing results and corrected a lot so can try to buy in small qty on further correction), swaraj engines, TRIL…
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 17, 2010 @ 6:37 pm
Nilesh,
How about Jubilant Organosys ? Though it is at 52 months’ high level, it appears to be fundamentally good stock considering future earnings and demurger plan. What should be the entry level for investment purposes (9-12 months) ?
Rgds, Anil
Comment by Anil — May 13, 2010 @ 9:09 pm
Hi Anil,
Yes fundamentally is good but the business it is in there are always chances for setback and it is not easy understanding the business model and continuously following it… I do not know what is your return expectations from this stock in 9-12 months period…. Depending on that, it could be a good buy or not… For now stock is trending upwards and near all time high and could easiy surpass it and any stock making new high or 52 week hgih is good and can add momentum and further move.. My suggestion is do not pick stock with horizon for 9-12 months but track it and ensure to change your decision on the way and exit if you get good returns…. Support for stock is at 320 and then 294 so either you can buy some and look to buy further it falls down… In short term it can go to 385 and 400 levels.. and then new move…
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 13, 2010 @ 10:46 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Could you please share your views on PSL ltd and India Glycols from short term perspective
Best Regards, Satish
Comment by Satish — May 13, 2010 @ 11:37 am
Hi Satish,
India Glycols – It has went upto 150 levels but could not cross it so that is key levels to look for and see if it can cross that and sustain over 150-154 levels then it can show some movement else it is giong to be in range with 150 at higher end and lower side 130 could be support and if that is broken can come to 118 also.
PSL Limited -> Again looks down and can go to even 130-133 levels and if it can take support and bounce back then it would be in range of 130 to 157… Nothing great looking as of now until results to be declared bring some surprise..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 13, 2010 @ 10:13 pm
DEAR NILESH,I WAS UNLUCKY BEFORE,AGAIN I HOLD 7400 QTY OF SREI INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCE ,AT AN AVERAGE RATE OF 83.00.WHAT WOULD BE MY STRATEGY TO EXIT FROM STOCK BY TAKING FEW PROFIT.I CAN HOLD THE STOCK UPTO 20 DAYS MORE.PLEASE GUIDE ME SIR.
Comment by BHAGWAT PRASAD TIWARI — May 12, 2010 @ 10:50 pm
Hi ,
Company posted good results and there is good things happening and should be good investment… Unfortunately your buy price is near to the resistance levels so if share can go above 84 then it can go to 90 levels and you can then sell it or sell partially and hold some and see if it can sustain over 90-92 levels as then it can show 110 levels also but cannot happen quickly probably can be 2-3 months down the line.. company has filed with RBI for Infrastructure finance company license and when it gets that it can disburse more loans which would be good.. also merger news is there and meeting is at end of may.. the issue you have is that the quantity is so huge that you would feel tensed… So I think you can give a hold but keep stoploss of 76 or else if you can hold for longer term then you can keep it for now
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 13, 2010 @ 10:02 pm
Hello Nilesh,hope you are doing well, do you have any inputs on Swan Energy the share reached 33.50/- low and 187/- high for the year, the fundamentals looks good, any opinion on fundamentals? also since you are the king of technicals would request you to please let me know about your opinion on the technicals as well.
warm regards
dhiraj mark
Comment by Dhiraj Mark — May 12, 2010 @ 10:22 pm
Hi Dhiraj,
Sorry but did not find any swan energy company on nse or bse.. Please provide nse code or bse code.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 12, 2010 @ 10:36 pm
Hello Nilesh, it was Swan mills previosly, BSE code is 503310.
regards
dhiraj mark
Comment by Dhiraj Mark — May 12, 2010 @ 10:40 pm
Hi Dhiraj,
I did not find this company any interesting fundamentally… Technically it is near high… and can be kept with stoploss of 133 and on higher side, see if 160 can be taken out then can go to 180..but this is more of a stock which I did not find interesting and feel risky about it…
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 13, 2010 @ 9:26 pm
Dear Nilesh
Greetings
Jyoti Structures is crashing after a long consolidation phase… Any specific reason? I am holding at 158; please advise
Thanks
Yogen
Comment by Yogen — May 12, 2010 @ 3:52 pm
Hi Yogen,
I do not know if market sense some bad numbers in this quarter results…. and could be reason for drop but I think stock has corrected and should take support around 140-143 and if this is broken then it can come even to 128-130 levels where it should have very good support as it has not gone below those levels for more than a year.. So if this is normal correction then shares should again move back and go to upper range of 165 levels or so… But it should now face resistance going higher as fall has been good and generally you would get sellers when share try to bounce back… If it can consolidate with upward bias then you should feel OK and expect it to come back above to your price…
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 12, 2010 @ 9:55 pm
Can u please recommand 3-5 good scrips for long term investing( With entry points)?
Comment by subhiksha — May 12, 2010 @ 3:36 pm
Hi Subhiksha,
There are many… but please note scrips mentioned here could do bad due to bad results or other issues which cannot be seen as of now….
I mentioned TRIL couple of days before on the blog, so you can try to look at that as one of the scrips…
You can also look at HCIL in range of 450-500, (not seeming like coming down to 450 levels so probably you have to enter in at higher end of the range)
Genus Power : Results coming on 14th, and so see how it goes but can give good growth from current levels in long term… Can be bought in 160-190 levels.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 12, 2010 @ 6:51 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Thanks for ur advice. Is GVK Power a good scrip to invest?Like to invest for long term( 6-12 months).
Comment by subhiksha — May 12, 2010 @ 3:25 pm
Hi Subhiksha,
Depends on what is your expectation in terms of returns… It is highly valued company in PE terms and probably would show growth in future but the overall sector and this company has not performed a big deal in this market… It has not been able to go past 55 and has come down.. Right now its coming to support of 40 and if it breaks that can come to 36-38 levels which probably is less risky buy around those levels…. In 6-12 months looking at historical movement and also assuming that company gives good growth, it can go back to 50-55 levels but it is trading in broad range of 36-55 for past year or so and can do so for next year also…. To me, be better off investing in something showing real growth rather than promise and is more fairly valued than this company..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 12, 2010 @ 6:48 pm
hi Nilesh,
what do you suggest for “Karur Vysya Bank Ltd.”, is it the right time to enter in this scrip ??
Comment by Amit — May 12, 2010 @ 12:18 pm
Hi Amit,
The stock has been in upward momentum and is just 10% lower than its all time high levels… So yes it can go past that if momentum continues or take a dip and come to lower levels of 470-480 and then restart upward journey.. The issue I have is results are yet to come out for this bank for this quarter… If it shows result like South Indian bank then it can correct quite a bit and then provide an opportunity so either wait for results and then see how it performs and then buy.. Also as its near all time highs, make sure you are entering for some good period of time and not just trading per say…. As there could be volatlity at these levels..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 12, 2010 @ 6:37 pm
Thanks sir…
Comment by Amit — May 13, 2010 @ 11:55 pm
hi nilesh,
i am holding 2000 shares of alok industries. ACP is 22.37.
I can hold for long term perspective. wht r ur views?
Comment by niren — May 12, 2010 @ 11:50 am
Hi Niren,
A big laggard which moves very rarely and its always good to exit out stock at that time… The industry and the stocks under this sector have mostly been laggards except few but then I do not think you should stick to this company as you are losing on good opportunities in the market… Try to exit if it moves up in coming days.. I thik it can even go to 18 and then 16 levels if weaknes persist.. On upside there could be different levels… but I remember it used to trade in 20-23 range for long period so probably can come there..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 12, 2010 @ 6:29 pm
Is it advisable to buy Uflex at current CMP for medium term (9-12 months ?
Rgds,
Anil
Comment by Anil — May 11, 2010 @ 9:49 am
Hi Anil,
Yes you can look this stock for 9-12 months… If it comes down lower to 85-90 levels then feel free to add more… You should get decent return of 30% atleast from current levels.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 11, 2010 @ 9:53 pm
Your views on Aarvee Denim for investment (12 months period)? Do you see any upmove? I noticed promotors are buying slowly. Fundamentals appear to be good.
Rgds, Anil
Comment by Anil — May 11, 2010 @ 9:30 am
Hi Anil,
The important thing to understand is that though results are good in last couple of quarters, it is difficult to predict results for this company as it has been over places for past few quarters… The company is in textile sector and the raw materials price can have a big impact and make the stock look unattractive down the line.. So you can buy it but then you need to ensure that you monitor the results and how it is doing… Stock market always factor in past results and look forward… See the share price if it can sustain 54 levels or not because below it can go even to 45-48 levels… If 54-55 is sustained then it can mvoe up… and has resistance around 75 .. it is not been able to cross 75 last time also..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 11, 2010 @ 10:00 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Good Afternoon,
I have purchased 100 shares of Skumars nationwide @ an avg. price of Rs.77.50.
Can you advice the long term and short term future for this scrip.
Rgds
Rahul
Comment by Rahul — May 10, 2010 @ 12:21 pm
Hi Rahul,
The stock is trading at high levels and its support and stoploss would be quite low.. In momentum this stock can go to 85 and then 96 levels.. There are intermediate resistances in between around 80-82 levels then around 85-88 also…And above 96 it can even go to 110 levels.. Now the stock has rallied this much on back of management news of very upbeat outlook and other business information… This stock has been a momentum stock and so you can wait for rally to start again and it can go higher from here.. so for now see how it does in coming days and if it does not show strength then you can think of exiting but for now hold.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 10, 2010 @ 8:47 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Can i buy TRIL , phillips carbon now ? What rates ?
Comment by Mhadev — May 10, 2010 @ 12:16 pm
Hi Mhadev,
TRIL has given very good results and have good growth prospects and same with Phillips Carbon black.. For TRIL, you can buy at any levels depending on your risk profile.. but yesterdays closing price was good entry point… 380-385 should be kept as stoploss .. Initially I see target of 450-460 on stock and sustaining above it could take it to 540 levels in medium term.. ANd long term prospects are also bright.
Regarding Phillips carbon, could go to 220+ then 240 and 260+ in medium term or so…
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 10, 2010 @ 8:43 pm
Hi Nilesh
Can you please give details in terms of entry price, time frame and tgt price for Phillips Carbon Black?
Thanks
Comment by Ankur — May 10, 2010 @ 8:41 am
Hi Ankur,
Phillips Carbon black gave good results and should have good growth and prospects going forward. It can be bought around 200-CMP levels… Now depending on how stock momentum and market is the targets and duration would vary.. But I think it can go to 220 +levels in very short term.. Around 240 in short term of say a month or two and then 260 or plus in medium term.. Assuming next quarter results are good and market conditions good… On downside I do not think stock should trade below 190…
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 10, 2010 @ 8:40 pm
Dear Mr. Nilesh,
How are you . Would you plaese give your advise on the following :
1. AXISBANK @ 1218,
2. Jindal Steel @638
3. Atlas Cycle @213
thank you,
Joseph
Comment by Joseph — May 9, 2010 @ 8:46 pm
Hi Joseph,
Axis Bank -> Hold it as it is good for medium to long term…..and good bank with very good results so it should bounce back once markets turnaround
Jindalstel -> It can go down to 600 levels and if it can sustain and bounce from there then it should be OK.. but going and sustaining below 600 could be bad for stock.
Atlas Cycle -> Hold on to it as stoploss I suggest was 200 and stock seems OK for now as market has corrected and it has managed to be at 210 levels or so
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 9, 2010 @ 9:22 pm
Hi Nilesh,
How are you doing?…..after this market crash some of the stocks are looking very reasonably priced like Aptech, Punj Lloyd , etc or can you suggest some other 3-4 stocks for medium to short term
regards
Ajay
Comment by Ajay — May 8, 2010 @ 10:02 pm
Hi Ajay,
Some of the few stocks that you can look at are:
Phillips Carbon Black
Electrosteel casting
Sesa Goa
TRIL
Seamec
Swaraj Engines…
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 9, 2010 @ 9:17 pm
hi,
Came to know abt your blog thru moneycontrol.Nice one.Your voluntary payment service is a good ideal.Can i enter Sterlite industries at this point?
Thanks.
Comment by subhiksha — May 8, 2010 @ 4:29 pm
Hi Subhiksha,
Metal companies have been in free fall and Sterlite has not been an exception but it always has come out stronger in terms of price movement on stocks whenever market picks up, so if you have good long term view then you can probably add on small quantities… But once market stabilises and commodities rebound this should pick up strongly… But depends on your risk profile and view for the market.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 9, 2010 @ 9:04 pm
Hi Nilesh
I would also like to confirm your opinion about Atlas Cycles as the same is trading at 211.60 on NSE (your recommended entry price was 209.00 – 213.00). Is it likely to go down further or one can enter into the scrip now? Pl guide me.
Regards
Comment by Ankur — May 8, 2010 @ 4:09 pm
Hi Ankur,
The stock has fallen from hgih levels but then has been good at the current levels and did not break below 210 levels also… so I think you can enter into the stock with a risk of 10rs or so which is the stoploss..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 9, 2010 @ 9:10 pm
Hi Nilesh,
I am holding 125 shares of Kesoram industries at an avg rate of 349.70. Kesoram crossed 412.00 mark last month and since then it has been falling down consistently. What is you opinion about this scrip. I have been holding this scrip for past 9 months or so and can hold for at least this December.
Regards.
Comment by Ankur — May 8, 2010 @ 3:47 pm
Hi Ankur,
If you look at results and how results have come out for past 5 quarters then you would notice that the company has been steadily dropping its profits and this does not look good.. Yes the share price has not performed that bad over those period but then it cannot sustain prices like this if company keeps performing like this. I will not be surprised if it comes to 300-315 levels and breaking it come to even 260 levels. It has broken 200 day Moving average also and see if it does not sustain and go above 340-350 levels soon then you should exit as I see it going down.. Only thing that can change is good results in coming quarters.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 9, 2010 @ 8:26 pm
wat about corporation bnk after breaking the trading jone 420-475?
Comment by sridar — May 8, 2010 @ 11:08 am
Hi Sridar,
Stock has come down due to market conditions but should bounce back and go higher… It is not at all highly valued and company has been performing steadily.. It trades around 6-7 PE and 1.25 times book value which shows there is value in buying this stock.. It might come to 490 and then to 475 levels but then if you are medium to long term investor you can buy into it and already holding then also keep hold it as it would go higher and can give good returns.. Any stock making new 52 week high or all time high has to be a good buy on corrections if it is fundamentally good.. and this company is.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 9, 2010 @ 8:19 pm
Wats u r view on 3IInfotech?
i have 100 shares at 78Rs..may i average or book looses….
Comment by tulasi — May 8, 2010 @ 11:07 am
Hi Tulasi,
The share in downturn might come to 65 and then 62 levels but if you have good medium to long term view then please hold on to this stock and can average out as its a decent company and performed decently in last year and is not over valued at current price.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 9, 2010 @ 8:10 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Pls give me the supportlevel for the following
1. AXISBANK
2.JIndal steel
3.Atlas Cycle
4. Unitech
Is it right time to buy stock ?
thank you
Joseph, Kuwait
Comment by Joseph — May 8, 2010 @ 9:26 am
Replied already to your query as you asked it again, so I hope it is OK.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 9, 2010 @ 9:22 pm
Dear Nilesh
Should I enter in punj lloyd at this level. Pl. advice me
Comment by Rakesh Verma — May 7, 2010 @ 8:54 pm
Hi Rakesh,
Frankly speaking the company has disappointed quarters after quarters and thats why you have seen co much correction in its price for so many quarters and has not performed well. The annual results are not yet out and you dont know how it has performed. There have been issues in company management as they have good order book but then something is wrong about how it has performed. Currently it is in downtrend and might even come to 132 levels…Ofcourse it is almost half of what its 52 week high was so only if company management can show some good results and improvement, this could underperform going forward but yes you can look to enter in it with risk mentioned above.. So see to it that you follow its results properly… but yes any turnaround should give good returns.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 9, 2010 @ 8:05 pm
Dear Mr. Nilesh
Is it good to buy SRF post the annual results . thanks
Comment by harish — May 7, 2010 @ 6:32 pm
Hi Hari,
I have been fond of this company due to the way they have performed in last few years in terms of dividend payment, equity buyback and now profits… I hope they can keep this good results for few more quarters as this share price could really be lot higher from here.. If you are investor you can look to enter into it not sure if this share opens gap up and how you trade because please not the market is volatile and you need to trade properly. But yes, good results atleast for me… I do not know what market might think about this but I have a feeling they should be happy about it.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 7, 2010 @ 7:41 pm
Hi Nilesh
Can you suggest some stocks one should purchase in current scenario once the market has bottomed out?
Thanks
Vivek
Comment by Vivek — May 7, 2010 @ 2:01 pm
Hi Vivek,
You can look at electrosteel casting, Phillips Carbon Black, Maharashtra Seamles, TRIL, Seamec
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 9, 2010 @ 9:19 pm
Hi Nilesh
Is there much upside left in SBI. Is it time to book profits
Thanks
Yogen
Comment by Yogen — May 6, 2010 @ 9:42 pm
Hi Yogen ,
Depends on how long your outlook is..but markets across world are in correction mode and it can come down but seems strong.. results are due on May 14 so it can be impacted by it.. but it is near all time high levels and hardly 10% below it so it might face resistance there and be volatile but I do not see big correction unless bad results or very bad markets.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 6, 2010 @ 11:41 pm
Nilesh,
Do you recommend OBC and Container Corporation at current levels.
What is the long term bets for metals stocks?
I bought Satyam before scam at 350 per share should i hold it or book loss.
-Pavan
Comment by S PAvan Kumar — May 6, 2010 @ 9:06 pm
Hi Pavan,
Regarding Orient bank, this has really performed well in past year or so and has come back very near to its all time high levels… The bank used to trade around these levels in 2004 and now coming there after 6 years mean that strong hands are coming into and would be matter of time before it make new highs and go further up. What has been issue earlier with OBC does not seem to be worry anymore as it has been giving good operating profits now but I guess revenue increase too should be good… It is one of good banks which is now changing its brand and outlook for customers… I think you should buy it but do not put in all money in one go but wait for correction days when you can nimble a bit because any bad results would hurt also but looks good for medium to long term and financials have huge potential in India. It trades at an attractive market cap and also PE whcih is around 8-9 only and is cheap compared to private banks.
Container Corporation is a steady company which gives same sort of results every quarter clocking around 200 crores as profit and around 950 crores of revenue… This quarter results were lower and stock has corrected. This also made new highs and has corrected.. This too can be bought in small quantities and seems 1200 and 1100 should be good support areas and market and company has to perform very bad for stock to trade well below those levels… Again a steady performer for medium to long term.
About Satyam, you should have averaged it when it went to 10rs levels 🙂 but now , things would improve only once we know what is real picture in the company and how tech mahindra uses this company and do with it in future if there is a merger or reverse merger and how new clients add up.. for now no point selling but you have waited for long enough so wait for mroe time until correct results come out.
On Metal stocks, selective buying in correction seems OK… but metals are cyclical industries so be aware of it.
nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 6, 2010 @ 11:37 pm
Hi Nilesh,
One of my friend recommended me your blog today and here I am posting my comment for the first time. I am amazed at your success rate and would be more than happy to follow you in future. You had recommended Vinati Organics last month as Buy at 75-78 levels. Today the share closed at 74.45. What is your call now? Can I enter tomorrow?
Thanking you in anticipation
Comment by Ankur — May 6, 2010 @ 8:12 pm
Hi Ankur,
Nice to know that you have come here on reference by friend which makes me think that there is something good here and thats why it has been referred. Thanks for your kind words also… Yes you can buy it but stoploss should me maintained.. There is no date on when results would come out for this company so this could be a news which can give some momentum on either side.. For now share is just trading in range with some weak bias so if it can go and sustain around 80 levels and then move then it should reach its target.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 6, 2010 @ 8:23 pm
Dear Nilesh
I have 2500 Andrew Yule @43.50 Pl.advice me should i hold or exit.
Comment by Rakesh Verma — May 5, 2010 @ 10:14 pm
Hi Rakesh,
The share seems weak and might even come to 35 levels also. I hope it does no go below it as then it could be very weak.. The company has always been volatile in trading as earlier it was 40 and then went to 90 due to divestment news and then has come down so much.. Also the results are not out so not sure how that comes but I guess you do not have option but to hold aslooking at pattern it does come to these levels and above it… But I would rather not buy such type of shares in so big quantity..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 5, 2010 @ 10:54 pm
Hi Nilesh ,
Any short calls in futures for tommorow?
Thanks .
Comment by abid — May 5, 2010 @ 12:08 am
Hi Abid,
As the market would open gap down then it would be difficult to short trade unelss you are very quick to trade… I think Relinfra if stays below 1080 can go to 1064 and then to even 1045-1050 levels.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 5, 2010 @ 12:43 am
hi, nilesh
i want to know about shri renuka sugars, what are your point of view??
Comment by Amit — May 4, 2010 @ 11:00 pm
Hi Amit,
I am not sure in what respect you want to enter i.e short or long term because stock is weakt but is in oversold territory and so you can look to enter into stock if it comes to 50-52 levels as risk in that trade would be very less. But in very short term any day you can expect a movement on upside also as it is quite oversold… But sugar sector has taken a beating and does not look great for now. So if you enter would have to be patient.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 4, 2010 @ 11:41 pm
Dear Nilesh,
Since last TWO days ICSA is trading in upper side with good volume. It’s trading above 50 EMA. Please can you suggest whether can it run further to cross 200 EMA? It seems it had bottomed out around at 115. Please you suggest me whether to hold for 2-3 months more or can I get out from this once I get my capital (Rs 163.5/Share).
Thank you very much.
Kind Regards,
Hegde.
Comment by Ramchandra Hegde — May 3, 2010 @ 11:29 pm
Hi Hegde,
The company is due to give its result on 7th May and probably might have some news and the share might be rising in anticipation. I do not think it would be easy for stock to cross 156-160 levels so easily and sustain it but with current momentum and some good news from results can definitely take it to your price levels.. Above 165 this stock can go to 180-185 levels but this is some time away.. For now look out for some news either coming out or good results… And we can never say if bottom has been formed for some time unless stock has shown a clear trend on the other way….
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 4, 2010 @ 12:02 am
Nilesh,
After announcement of 50% dividend and 5:1 bonus, Panoramic Universal has fallen from 321/- to almost 245/-. Promoter holding is 74.4%. 4th qtr results are not so good but not very bad either. What could be the possible reason for this drastic fall ? Yearly High & low is 349 & 200 respectively on BSE.
Rgds,
Anil
Comment by Anil — May 3, 2010 @ 10:28 pm
Hi Anil,
The company is hardly a 50cr company which has a market cap of 370 cr and is trading at almost 20+ PE. It has been running up and was in downtrend only but the news of bonus might have brought cheer before and then once news was out then it would have corrected. I do not follow this stock and saw now only… If it goes below 240 then it could become more weak and 200 levels.. Also in such companies you would not know if stock prices movement are being manipulated.. I do not know what price you entered with what objective but about volatility, as I said stock was in downtrend and probably news took it up and then once news was out its again profit booking.. Also once you cannot make out why something is happening and feel not good about it, better to exit
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 3, 2010 @ 11:23 pm
Thanks for quick reply Nilesh. I have purchased 50 at 257/-. I expect it may go slightly up when closure to record date for bonus. I intend to exit at that time or may be earlier if it further goes down. Once again thanks. Rgds, Anil
Comment by Anil — May 4, 2010 @ 9:08 am
Hi Nilesh!
Thanks for ur mature comments.Pl. let me know about Globus spirits.Is it in consolidation phase ?
Comment by ami — May 3, 2010 @ 9:07 pm
Hi Ami,
The stock has been trending downward but in last few sessions has managed to stay above its few days intraday low.. It could possibly give movement if it goes above 140 levels. Probably 125-130 should act as support for this stock for now..
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 3, 2010 @ 11:10 pm
Hello Nilesh, how are you doing? any latest price tags on atlas cycle and national fertilizers???
warm regards
dhiraj mark
Comment by dhiraj mark — May 3, 2010 @ 1:19 pm
Hi,
For Atlas Cycle there has been no change that price tag would change and neither for NFL.. NFL is a share which when gathers momentum would move a lot in a day intraday itself… Also, there cannot be any new price tags attached to stocks unless they have either reached target or stoploss reached… So for now both shares are status quo.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 3, 2010 @ 11:14 pm
Dear Nilesh,
I just want to know your opinion about MCLEOD RUSSEL , what is the rite price to enter and short and long term targets.
Comment by Ajay — May 2, 2010 @ 11:07 pm
Hey,
It has broken trendline and now has support at 217 levels and if that breaks then it can go to 195 levels also… Also the stock would have lower high and lower low which is not good for short term or long term trend… Either the stock keeps above 217 levels and bounce back from here and go past intermediate highs or else it would go down to 195 levels and below it could be more lower
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — May 3, 2010 @ 11:16 pm