Please post all your Generic queries / discussion points / inputs on the blog for the month of December 2011 in this section as comments. Any query or comments specific to a post on the blog should be posted under that section only and not under this Q&A.
Thanks
Nilesh
Tracking, Trading and Investing in the Markets 
Hi Nilesh,
Happy New Year..
Where is Nifty heading to? Can we believe sell of over and getting ready for upmove.. Any buy recomment on current senario? Or wait for Nifty below 4500?
Pls advise
Thanks
Comment by Narayan — January 4, 2012 @ 9:18 pm
Hi Narayan,
Nifty is still in channel range with upward levels around 5100-5200 and lower side around 4550-4600…. And this channel is downward channel so will keep going down or unless nifty stays in lot more closer range and form a different consolidation. The way Dow charts and other european markets are shaping up, they are trying to make higher high and higher lows while indian market has failed to do so… So we have to wait for that. But atleast at stock level, keep buying in small quantities good quality stocks on big down weeks… For now nifty might go further up from here as it has stopped falling.
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — January 5, 2012 @ 8:28 pm
Hi Nilesh,
Wish you and your family a very happy new year.. 🙂
Comment by Anand — December 31, 2011 @ 7:49 pm
Same to you. Thanks a lot.
Regards
NIlesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — January 5, 2012 @ 8:25 pm
Hello Nilesh, wish you and your family a very happy christmas and a fantastic new year ahead.
very warm regards
Dhiraj Mark
Comment by Dhiraj mark — December 25, 2011 @ 9:18 pm
Hi Dhiraj,
Thanks a lot. Wish you and your family also the same!
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — December 26, 2011 @ 4:52 pm
Hi Nilesh ,
Do you have any idea about what is fundamentally wrong with Jain irrigation ?
Thanks
Comment by vinoth — December 20, 2011 @ 1:55 pm
Hi Vinoth,
Stocks are hardly fairly valued and are mostly overdone in fall or rise… In terms of any fundamental issues with Jain Irrigation, it has been mostly to do with sentiment around the stock. In stock market once sentiment is bad, you cannot exactly say when stock will stop falling. The correction started due to fundamental issues in terms of results, issue due to rupee depreciation as it has a big impact on company profit.. In last qtr they had 59cr forex loss on account o it… Also the company is planning to change business model by coming up with NBFC this or next fiscal and it could have uncertainty on how their orders come from farmers and there could be some slow growth.. I do not say that stock is great buy or is bad stock but the market rules… if market is not willing to give a better valuation to stock at this moment, you have to live with it.. If you intend to buy the stock then try to do it once you are sure it has stopped falling and signs of business model clarity and ruppee appreciation is clear.
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — December 21, 2011 @ 11:45 pm
Hello Nilesh,
If you may spend time and respond on Jai Balaji industries and ARSS Infra, both these stocks have great potential having expansion plan and also healthy order books but they have been beaten up very very badly, Balaji from 340 leves to 36 today and ARSS infra from 800 to 128, I tried getting some news but nothing bad for these companies but market has taken a toll on them, wanted to know if you may throw some light on these, what level they will have the support now and infact they are good buys for long term perspective.
warm regards
Dhiraj Mark
Comment by Dhiraj mark — December 16, 2011 @ 9:51 am
Hi Dhiraj,
From my perspective, these stocks have fallen for some reason and issues which you will see in future results. With interest rates high and the economic scenario, I am pretty sure the coming quarter results will be bad only and markets are smart in factoring these adjustments. These stocks are making multi year lows and that is never good for a stock. There are various stocks which seemed a great idea but have suffered huge fall and never recovered. I suggest not to invest in such stocks unless they form a base and we are certain they have stopped falling. I do not say that these levels might not seem like a great level in hindsight but then why would I like to buy stocks like this when there are large caps also available at multi year lows and might be more better bet than these stocks. You can look at these stocks when their result shows turnaround and stocks stop making new lows and form a base. Until then I just suggest to wait and watch and not buy these stocks.. They might be good trading bets if you follow their movement but if we have to invest for long term, I suggest wait more before it is certain these stocks are not falling and have formed a base…
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — December 18, 2011 @ 10:59 pm
Hello Mr. Nilesh,
Since market is no man land, I am little puzzled. I bought JP Associate @ almost Rs.78/=, Sintex @ 115 and King Fisher Airlines @ 22.88. Shall I average them or sell and buy other stocks ? pls advise me.
thank you, Joseph
Comment by joseph chako — December 14, 2011 @ 11:41 pm
Hi Joseph,
It will benefit me to reply if I know what timeframe are you looking for as accordingly I can review these stocks and advise if you can get the price or not.
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — December 15, 2011 @ 9:57 pm
Hi Nilesh,
3 months time
Comment by joseph chako — December 15, 2011 @ 11:20 pm
Hi Joseph,
It will be difficult to sell these stocks at such levels except KFA as it is near your buy only.. JP Associates and Sintex might consolidate and give a bounce depending on market movement so I could suggest that you look for them to form a base and buy then to average and sell some part of it when bounce comes back and do such trading to bring your costing less… It will be surprising if Sintex can rise 100% from current levels in next 3 months as I do not see markets to show such a bounce in such a quick time unless budget is too optimistic and eurozone issues are resolved alongwith indian problems which will be difficult…
Sintex can definitely target 80 and then 90 levels but 115 will be tall high.. so probably wait for it to correct further and then buy small quantities to average.. Or just wait and let these stocks do a bounce and when they correct again and are certain not to make new lows we will know they are forming a base and can average out then….
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — December 18, 2011 @ 11:04 pm
Hi Mr NNilesh,
thank you for all your comments about the market.
Since the market iscorrecting and will soon find a good bottom support soon. In that case kindly advise some good large and small cap stocks to invest.
thank you,
joseph kuwait
Comment by joseph chako — December 13, 2011 @ 8:48 pm
Hi Joseph,
Probably you can look at stocks like Banks in private and public space: ICICI, Axis, Bank of Baroda, Sbin, Canbk. Metals like tata steel, hindalco, hindustan zinc. Capital goods like Bhel, Crompton Greaves, LT. There are many other stocks also… but its difficult to just name them without proper details and will not be right…..and not possible to just mention them all in one go.
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — December 13, 2011 @ 11:33 pm
Hello Nilesh,how are you doing? just wanted to know the strategy now, do we stay aside and watch the market or can still buy stocks in small lots, things are looking quite gloomy, EU issues are quite scary secondly Indian growth is forecasted low seeing the IIP data, what do you suggest on markets now and as an investor as well.
warm regards
Dhiraj Mark
Comment by Dhiraj mark — December 13, 2011 @ 8:45 am
Hi Dhiraj,
I am fine. Thanks for asking. About how stock market is behaving and the way news has been coming out from India, EU or US.. it makes an interesting and difficult market. But the more I see such pessimistic notes coming out from various quarters and markets not making new lows but still following the channel, I am getting convinced that infact by the time the whole set of issues end, we might not break this channel on lower side and make a good rebound but I am not saying this will happen now. We have lot of hard issues in India itself and it is not easy to just assume things will turn up quickly. With the kind of volatility even politics show nowadays, it will take lot of work to get India out of the mess. I have mentioned this earlier that just assuming that India has to grow does not help and that is showing in markets now.. But in recent past looking at how CLSA and other so call research reports depict sensex values in 2012, it makes me feel we might infact not go so down…. About IIP data, this was expected last week itself after the industrial output data so to me it was not a surprise.. Market was already talking a -5% IIP data … if channels showed it otherwise then they were fooling all…. As an investor you should use bad days to buy quality stocks… Think about how much you have money to invest, are there stocks you have to average and then how much money you kept aside for it and how much for fresh buying. Do not do mistake of averaging if a stock if falling knife and not a quality stock.. On specific sector, keep an eye on banks stocks, capital goods, midcaps stocks in these sectors, and infrastructure related… and finally metal stocks also…. Frankly speaking there are so many stocks so not easy for me to just say all and you might have something in your radar and if it fits in quality value and near bottom you can look at that.. ofcourse i can help in answering query on those stocks…
I am also keen to see how all this will end but I think we might not go a lot below than current levels.. I earlier had 4300 around levels as very bearish bottom and now just focussing on nifty channel to make judgment. Will post update on Nifty during the week or weekend.
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — December 13, 2011 @ 11:29 pm
Thank you so much for taking your time out to reply. Thanks and have a great day.
regards
Dhiraj Mark
Comment by Dhiraj mark — December 14, 2011 @ 10:10 am
sir your views on adanient i am holding 100 @360 and your view on rallis india
Comment by sorabh — December 8, 2011 @ 3:51 pm
Hi Sorabh,
Adanient has corrected a lot and gave bounce till 345 levels before coming down again… If it can cross 345-350 levels on closing basis for few days then it can go till 390 levels but if it fails to do so and breaks below recent lows then it can go till 250 levels also. Now if you are not kind of investor to see such erosion of stock value, then try to exit if goes on higher side and on lower side keep a stoploss of recent lows… But if you can then average rather at 250 levels and then hold the stock.
Regards
Nilesh
Comment by Nilesh Baldwa — December 13, 2011 @ 11:18 pm